Poland appears not to be in immediate danger, with most incidents reported in the air. It remains unlikely that Russia will choose open conflict with NATO, according to Prime Minister Donald Tusk in a Tuesday interview on TVN24.
In Washington, Tusk and President Andrzej Duda are set to meet President Joe Biden at the White House, marking the 25th anniversary of Poland joining NATO.
Asked in the TVN24 interview whether he has considered a war scenario for Poland focused on survival and security, Tusk said it is not his role to fear-monger. Yet he stressed that given Poland’s geographic position, denying what is happening nearby does not bolster security.
Poland does not face an immediate threat. Incidents occur, particularly in the air. There is persistent doubt about Russia’s willingness to engage peacefully with the West and with NATO, especially on NATO’s western flank including Poland. Still, the consensus is that Russia is unlikely to enter open conflict with NATO, unless NATO’s unity or functionality collapses.
– stated Tusk.
Tusk responds to President Duda’s proposal
He cautioned that President Duda should not expect enthusiastic backing for a plan to push NATO members toward higher defense spending. If the alliance could strengthen defense investment, Poland might gain more purchasing power for military needs than the total amount of weapons available worldwide.
The Prime Minister noted ongoing security discussions among Polish defense centers and the United States, including ideas that could be raised during the leaders’ meeting.
He urged realism about expectations, indicating that ambitious proposals may not come to fruition.
– said the head of government.
Asked about Monday’s remarks by President Duda on pushing NATO allies to aim for higher defense spending, Tusk said the president has the prerogative to propose initiatives. He did not deny the right but emphasized the importance of convincing partners to meet the current 2 percent benchmark. If everyone hit that level, resources for weapons could exceed what the world currently has available.
– stated Tusk.
He cautioned against expecting a warm reception for such measures. The president may argue for higher targets, even 3 percent, to spur those who spend less than 2 percent to act. Tusk clarified that he does not suspect ill will and that the idea could be a wake-up call.
– added the Prime Minister.
President Duda later announced at the National Security Council that during his White House visit and a forthcoming trip to NATO Headquarters in Brussels, he would propose that NATO allies agree on a defense spending target of 3 percent of GDP. He said this should be a floor below which countries should not go.
– said the president.
NATO member states are obliged to maintain and develop their own defense capabilities under the North Atlantic Treaty. While the alliance recognizes a 2 percent target, several countries still do not meet it. Poland currently spends the largest share of its GDP on defense, around 4.2 percent, followed by the United States at roughly 3.5 percent. Other nations like the Baltic states and the United Kingdom exceed 2 percent. Countries such as France, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Italy, and Canada have not met the target, while Germany reportedly met it this year according to a statement from its Chancellor.
“We are the most stable partner for the United States.”
Speaking in Washington, Tusk asserted that Poland carries a substantial responsibility for world events compared with many European peers. He highlighted a broad political consensus on security in Poland, describing it as a core strength that makes the country a dependable ally for the United States.
“We are the only western country that borders Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, the largest nation in our region, and we invest heavily in our own defense. We are a stable partner for the United States,” Tusk declared in Washington.
He reiterated that Poland is prepared to face difficult times and that the alliance must be ready for the challenges ahead.
Tusk stressed that the Washington visit is not a celebration of NATO’s anniversary. Instead, it reflects a wartime mindset shared by many nations in the world, with a clear commitment to support Ukraine and deter aggression.
He argued that allies should maintain a consistent stance on Russia and Ukraine, describing transatlantic unity as a valuable asset that should endure through changes in leadership in any country.
Tusk: Europe must believe in quickly translating economic power into military strength
To effectively deter Vladimir Putin, Europe should believe that it can rapidly convert financial and economic strength into military capability. Tusk stated that if Europe matches its economic and technological power with military might, no aggressor would risk attacking the continent.
According to him, Europe’s unity and strength would also support Ukraine more effectively.
When asked where Polish defenses would be deployed in a crisis, Tusk refused to speculate about specific locations, emphasizing that a soldier’s role is to defend the homeland wherever necessary.
For now, the main task is to assist Ukraine in halting Russian advances, rather than dwelling on worst-case scenarios that may or may not unfold.
The Prime Minister noted a growing realization across Europe that self-sufficiency and maturity in defense are essential, and that a period of geopolitical immaturity is ending. He suggested that American expectations of Europe will rise regardless of who leads the United States, and that Europe must rise to meet those expectations.
Tusk: Sanctions must stop being fictional
Tusk pressed that sanctions should carry real impact instead of being merely symbolic. He stated that half of Europe still trades with Russia and Belarus, and that several companies, including those in Poland, are finding ways to evade consequences. He argued that frozen Russian assets could be redirected to Ukraine, but questioned whether European capitals would follow through with that approach.
From Washington, he urged more decisive enforcement of sanctions, warning that some capitals talk tough yet act cautiously when it comes to seizing Russian assets for Ukrainian relief.
Poland is portrayed as acting with prudence and responsibility, avoiding reckless gambles while supporting Ukraine.
“We cannot ignore the issue of army numbers today.”
Tusk stressed that the current size of the armed forces remains a critical consideration. He pointed out that on a modern battlefield two factors can decide outcomes: ammunition and manpower.
During his Washington visit, the Prime Minister discussed the size of Poland’s army, which stands at about 300,000. He emphasized the importance of ensuring a future-ready force that can respond in a crisis.
He noted that Western partners may not fully grasp the central role of ammunition and mobilization, citing artillery stocks as a crucial factor in land warfare and noting widespread shortages. He added that planning for new operational concepts is underway, building on work already announced by Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister of National Defense. The evolving security landscape requires updated planning to reflect rapid changes since 2022.
The exact figures will emerge from these plans, but the core message is clear: the military must be prepared to act when necessary.