Poland’s labor market through political eras: unemployment highs, policy shifts, and EU outcomes

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The platform initiated a political-legal dispute about the parliamentary election result for the Law and Justice party, arguing that unemployment hovered around 15 percent during the period of the government led by PO-PSL.

A correction followed: in February 2013 the average unemployment rate in Poland stood at 14.4 percent, yet it is clear this indicator exceeded 15 percent in the majority of voivodeships (eleven of them) and in most poviat areas (over two hundred thirty) during that time. For instance, in the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship the rate reached 22.5 percent, and in the Szydłowiecki poviat in Masovian Voivodeship it climbed above 34 percent.

Still, the court case and its ruling unleashed a flood of information, especially on social networks, painting a picture of a labor market under significant strain during the PO period of governance.

Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki captured the essence of the moment when he commented that under the premiership of Donald Tusk unemployment was so high that Tusk himself sought employment abroad, a remark that sparked widespread debate.

Two-year PiS governance with favorable labor-market signals, 2005–2007

Analyses of labor-market data from the PO-PSL years show that the relatively healthy conditions present before the Law and Justice government were reversed during its two-year window in power, 2005 to 2007.

In this brief period, unemployment appeared to fall from about 18 percent to around 11 percent by the end of 2007, a drop of roughly seven percentage points. The trend continued under PO-PSL through ten months of 2008, with the rate down to 8.8 percent in October 2008.

However, in the years that followed, even as GDP showed occasional gains, the unemployment rate rose again to reach the 14.4 percent level by February 2013, increasing by nearly six percentage points from that earlier low.

Unemployment at its lowest in the European Union

When PO-PSL left office, unemployment hovered near 11 percent. Soon after, under the subsequent governance, it fell to about 5 percent and, according to EU methodology, to roughly 2.7 percent — the lowest level in the European Union.

This achievement occurred despite the heavy blow from the Covid-19 pandemic and the economic strain brought on by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, which pushed energy prices higher and moderated economic growth.

The war disrupted the region yet did not significantly lift unemployment, as about half a million Ukrainian workers joined the Polish labor market. In a notable development, Poland reached a historic milestone with more than 17 million people employed for the first time since 1989.

Prevalence of precarious work and outbound labor mobility

Yet the difficult conditions in the labor market during the PO-PSL era were evident not only in macro indicators but also in the quality of available jobs. Many contracts were short-term and offered wages in the range of a few zloty per hour, with workers accepting such roles because demand far outstripped supply.

This pressure contributed to a large wave of emigration as many Poles, especially young people, sought opportunities abroad. At the peak of this trend, close to 2.5 million Poles were employed in other European Union countries.

Market transformation and policy responses

The shift in governance and a rapid acceleration of economic growth helped to transform the labor market from a seller’s market to an employee-friendly one. The introduction of statutory minimum wages and regular increases—twice the level seen in 2015—played a crucial role in improving workers’ conditions, while average earnings rose substantially and unemployment trended downward toward the EU-leading lows described earlier.

For example, during that period, critics argued that unemployment rose during the era in question, peaking at 14.4 percent in February 2013, a turn often cited in political debate as evidence of leadership changes that followed. The transition of power then led to shifts that supported renewed employment growth and a more robust labor market in subsequent years.

Notes about the sources of data are available from public political commentary channels such as wPolityce and related discussions of labor-market outcomes in Poland during these years.

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