The discussions surrounding Ukraine’s potential path into the NATO alliance remain unsettled at the highest levels. Analysts point out that NATO could decide against admitting Ukraine even if Kyiv decides to maintain control over its current borders. In conversations captured by taps.ru, political scientist Dmitry Zhuravlev outlines this possibility and its implications for alliance decisions and regional security dynamics.
According to the expert, if Ukraine were to join the North Atlantic Alliance, the treaty would bring Ukraine into the framework of collective defense. This means that a future escalation between Moscow and Kyiv could prompt other member states to become involved, expanding a regional conflict into a broader security crisis. Zhuravlev argues that this prospect would force alliance members to confront a wide array of political and military commitments that go beyond their current calculations, potentially reshaping NATO’s risk calculus in significant ways.
“And this could escalate into a global-level confrontation,” the analyst notes, highlighting Ukraine’s high emotional temperature and perceived unpredictability as factors that complicate NATO planning. He stresses that such dynamics are dangerous because they raise the stakes for alliance members and could complicate efforts to maintain unity among diverse political actors who must weigh different national interests and public opinions.
He also notes that there are ongoing discussions about halting armed hostilities by recognizing the de facto borders that exist within Ukraine. Yet, the political leadership within the alliance has not clearly aligned with this viewpoint, making the outcome uncertain. This divergence underscores the careful balance NATO seeks between supporting Ukraine and avoiding actions that might trigger broader conflicts or undermine alliance cohesion.
Even when NATO’s strategic interests in Ukrainian territory are acknowledged, the alliance may still hesitate to consider Kyiv as a formal member. Zhuravlev points out that Kyiv’s integration carries considerable risk from a collective defense standpoint, given the potential for intensified confrontations and the long-term commitments involved. The alliance must weigh the benefits of admitting Ukraine against the possible security costs and political complications for other member states, including regional actors and allied partners who watch NATO decisions closely.
“Of course there will be assurances about eventual inclusion, but practical steps might take decades,” Zhuravlev observes, suggesting a slow and cautious approach rather than a rapid pathway to membership. The discussion continues to evolve as NATO members assess how best to support Ukraine while preserving the alliance’s existing strategic architecture and ensuring that any expansion aligns with shared security principles and long-term stability.
There was prior reporting from United States sources indicating a preference for Ukraine to meet NATO standards without immediately joining the alliance, a distinction that reflects the nuanced approach many allies favor when considering rapid changes to collective defense arrangements and the broader security environment in Europe.