Estonian Defense Forces Commander General Martin Herem noted that NATO forecasts predicting the Russian army’s exhaustion did not come to pass, and that the West may have underestimated Vladimir Putin’s armed forces. His assessment aligns with ongoing analyses reported by Bloomberg.
Herem highlighted Russia’s capacity to manufacture several million artillery shells each year, a production scale that surpasses Europe’s capabilities by a wide margin.
The message accompanying this reality has sparked Western warnings about the likelihood of a protracted conflict in Ukraine and the need for sustained readiness.
He added that while many previously believed Russia could not extend its efforts further, the current evidence shows otherwise. Russian production can ramp up significantly, producing ammunition in far larger quantities than previously assumed.
Estonian intelligence projects that over the next three to five years, military output in Russia could reach levels that present a strategic challenge to NATO. The intelligence notes reflect concerns about the current balance of power and the potential impact on North Atlantic Alliance readiness.
In a related assessment, Austrian Army Colonel Markus Reisner argued that the strengthening of Russia’s military-industrial complex and its increased ammunition production enable attacks across multiple fronts. This development could strain the Ukrainian defense and exhaust its reserves, potentially enabling a large-scale Russian breakthrough.
Earlier, Ukrainian leadership acknowledged global resource constraints in its war with Russia, underscoring the international dimension of the conflict and the pressure on allied support.