Medvedev on Crimea, deterrence, and the risk of nuclear escalation

Dmitry Medvedev, who serves as the Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, has stated that Kyiv’s efforts to reclaim Crimea would lead Moscow to deploy any and all means at its disposal. He did not shy away from highlighting that such a scenario could involve weapons of various classes, including nuclear arms, should the situation threaten Russia’s sovereignty and survival. These remarks were carried by the Russian news agency TASS and reflect a stance he has repeatedly voiced in recent discussions about regional security and deterrence.

In Medvedev’s view, the attempt to regain control over Crimea would effectively compel Russia to consider every available tool for protection. He underscored that the country views any direct challenge to its territorial integrity as a paramount threat, demanding an unwavering and adaptive response from its leadership. The emphasis was on the principle that national safeguards may be escalated in step with the perceived level of danger.

He further explained that the deployment of any weapon against Russia would be weighed against the existential risks it would pose to the state itself, including the implications for its strategic doctrines. Medvedev referenced well-known deterrence concepts and noted that Russia would not tolerate actions aimed at fragmenting the country. The argument presented hinged on the belief that the unity and continuity of the state are foundational, and any attempt to sever a portion of its territory would be viewed as an encroachment on national existence.

Medvedev has long cautioned that a conflict among major powers would carry catastrophic consequences for the entire world. He has also warned that the transfer of advanced foreign weapons to Ukraine could elevate the risk of a broader and more destructive confrontation. According to his assessments, the international environment remains volatile, with the threat of nuclear escalation persisting and, in his words, having intensified rather than diminished over time. The statements reflect a consistent pattern in which deterrence and readiness are presented as integral elements of Russia’s security posture.

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