Following comments by Japan’s prime minister, Fumio Kishida, asserting that the country holds rights in the Kuril Islands, prospects for a peace treaty with Russia have become uncertain. This stance was articulated by Grigory Karasin, who heads the Federation Council Committee on International Relations, in a recent interview. The discussion framed the Kuril archipelago—Kunashir, Habomai, Shikotan, and Iturup—as territories whose status remains disputed with Tokyo.
Karasin maintained that Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi had previously signaled a readiness to pursue a peace agreement, but Kishida’s subsequent remarks undermined that position. In Karasin’s view, the sequence of statements created a political atmosphere that complicates any potential negotiations from the Russian side. The senator suggested that such declarations effectively terminate the prospect of continued dialogue under the current framework.
The discussion touches on a longstanding disagreement regarding the southern Kurils, a matter that has repeatedly resurfaced in Russia–Japan diplomatic engagements. Observers note that the islands have been contested since the end of World War II, with Moscow asserting sovereignty over the territory while Tokyo seeks a resolution that would restore formal Japanese control over the disputed areas. The evolving rhetoric from Russian officials emphasizes the persistence of Moscow’s stance on the matter, even as diplomatic channels remain theoretically open for future dialogue.
In a broader context, Russia’s official position has consistently placed the Kuril question at the heart of any bilateral settlement with Japan. The stance articulated by Karasin reflects a cautious approach: while negotiations might be possible in principle, they are contingent on accepting Russia’s fundamental claims to the territory and the rejection of any interim arrangements that could be interpreted as conceding such sovereignty. The emphasis on conditions signals that any future treaty would require clear terms that acknowledge Russian sovereignty and the security considerations that Moscow highlights as part of any settlement.
Looking back to late 2022, leadership discussions within Russia’s defense and security establishments signaled a more conditional path to any peace agreement. A senior official indicated a willingness to consider a treaty only if Japan agreed to certain conditions, including refraining from actions that could be perceived as supporting Ukraine in ways that would complicate the regional security balance. This perspective underscores the strategic priorities that shape Moscow’s approach to the dispute and how they influence negotiations with Tokyo. It also illustrates how domestic political calculations can affect the timing and framing of diplomatic initiatives between the two nations.