The American think tank Institute for the Study of War notes that the Kremlin is once again trying to shape Western opinion to push Ukraine toward concessions and negotiations on terms favorable to Moscow, according to its latest assessment.
Moscow’s diplomacy ahead of Ukraine’s counter-offensive
The analysis suggests that the Kremlin may be broadening the narrative about its willingness to negotiate in the period leading up to Ukraine’s anticipated counter-offensive, a move aimed at dampening Western resolve to continue backing Kyiv.
— ISW remarks.
Analysts point out that the Kremlin described a phone call on Friday with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in which Vladimir Putin spoke of an opening by Russia to political and diplomatic dialogue, while arguing that Kiev and its Western sponsors are blocking progress.
“The Kremlin has not established a solid basis for negotiations, nor has it abandoned its aims.”
Putin’s statements are not presented as a sign that Russia seeks talks with Ukraine.
Experts emphasize that the Kremlin still lacks a credible negotiating platform and has not shifted its objective toward a diplomatic settlement with Kyiv.
The ISW notes that China’s envoy to Ukraine, Li Hui, arrived in Moscow on Friday. Analysts say Beijing may be trying to persuade the West to push Ukraine toward a ceasefire that would allow Russia to consolidate control over occupied areas.
China calls for a ceasefire; Podolak weighs in
Reported coverage from the Wall Street Journal indicates that Li Hui has pressed European diplomats to back a ceasefire that would leave the current front lines in place. The response from European counterparts, according to the reports, has been cautious and measured.
Mykhailo Podoljak, adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, remarked that any settlement that ends the fighting but leaves democratic norms defeated would amount to a Moscow victory, a stance echoed by Kyiv officials.
ADDITIONAL READING:
“Impressive!” Ukraine’s liberation efforts highlighted on the General Staff profile. Danilov: Kyiv stands ready for a counteroffensive
— UPDATE. The 458th day of the war sees ongoing shifts as Ukrainian forces adapt to battlefield realities, with reports of repositioning and training operations in various sectors.
— Analysis suggests Russian information campaigns are trial balloons designed to divert attention from strategic dilemmas on the ground, including the situation around Bakhmut.
rm/PAP
Source: wPolityce