Without the deals of the century
President Joe Biden concluded a Middle East tour that sparked more questions than clear answers for observers in the United States and Canada. The trip underscored a steadfast American stance in the region, with Biden asserting that Washington will not allow a vacuum for rival powers to fill.
Analysts note that the itinerary should not be mistaken for a major breakthrough, even with several agreements announced along the way. In Jerusalem, Biden joined Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid to sign the Jerusalem Declaration, a framework for deeper security cooperation and reaffirmation of Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region. The document also reinforces Washington’s intent to implement a 38 billion dollar memorandum of understanding for military aid.
In talks with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Biden emphasized that the United States would keep pursuing closer ties between Israel and the Palestinian leadership, though concrete steps remain undefined. Washington acknowledges the Palestinian right to statehood while conceding that the two-state framework remains an unresolved objective for now.
Another objective was advancing normalization with Saudi Arabia. Media coverage focused on the dynamics with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has faced sharp international scrutiny following the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The Crown Prince accepted responsibility but asserted that implicated officials were acting without his knowledge.
Four years later, the issue remains divisive. Biden reiterated that he remembered the crown prince’s involvement, while noting a recent stance that called for Saudi Arabia to be treated as a partner rather than a pariah. Leaks from regional media suggested that talks with Riyadh did not produce a decisive diplomatic breakthrough. Saudi officials stressed that local investigations into the Khashoggi matter were closed and warned against external values being imposed on other governments. The arch of discussion extended to regional security concerns and human rights rhetoric, with comparisons drawn to past U.S. actions in Iraq and to violence in other parts of the region.
Oil supply was another focal point. Observers wondered whether the administration would persuade Saudi leaders to raise production to ease prices. The Saudi response emphasized adherence to the OPEC+ framework, with capacity growth from around 12 million barrels per day to a possible ceiling near 13 million daily by 2027, constrained by real-world capacity. Analysts noted that Riyadh is unlikely to breach agreed limits.
Scholars from the Higher School of Economics commented that existing signals from Riyadh nonetheless show a potential for closer cooperation between the United States and Saudi Arabia, primarily on economic and strategic interests. Some observers described Biden’s reception in Saudi Arabia as mixed, reflecting the tension between past criticisms and present pragmatism in pursuit of broader regional stability.
Analysts pointed out that the joint statements on Ukraine and international law did not translate into a harder Saudi stance on Moscow’s actions. It was noted that discussions avoided direct friction over Russia while signaling support for Ukraine as a matter of principle, without provoking unnecessary estrangement with Riyadh.
Another line of analysis suggested that the talks do not automatically redefine the alliance, but rather set a stage for ongoing regional engagement. Observers cautioned that a formal anti-Iran coalition would require careful diplomacy and would likely remain informal rather than legally binding, while acknowledging shared concerns about Iranian influence in the region.
There is broad concern about Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. The Jerusalem Declaration commits to preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and to countering Tehran’s destabilizing activities. Experts anticipate that the United States may seek to re-enter or renegotiate the JCPOA as part of a broader regional realignment. The original JCPOA was created in 2015 with Iran and six mediators, lifting some sanctions in exchange for limits on Iran’s nuclear program, an agreement that the United States left in 2018 under a different administration.
Several analysts noted that early signals from Biden showed openness to restoring ties with Tehran and easing tensions with Riyadh, highlighting how such de-escalation could create space for Israeli strategic flexibility. They also stressed that any nuclear diplomacy will take time and require careful balancing of interests for all involved parties, including Russia and regional allies. Opinions varied on whether the final settlement would emerge before or after broader regional and global crises shift the dynamics. Some experts stressed that Iran and allied sides would pursue maximum gains while waiting to see how U.S. priorities shift on the global stage.
In summary, while the tour did not deliver a sweeping strategic win, it reinforced a pragmatic approach to regional diplomacy. Observers in the region and in North America expect continued negotiation across security, energy, and diplomatic lines as Washington seeks to stabilize the Middle East without overcommitting to any single path. The overarching takeaway is a cautious, ongoing effort to align interests among longstanding partners while avoiding sharp confrontations that could destabilize markets or complicate governance in the coming years.