The Russian Foreign Ministry has warned that the Black Sea grain deal could reach an expiration point on July 17 if Rosselkhozbank remains outside the SWIFT payments system or if other key obstacles to Russia’s agricultural exports persist. The ministry’s statement underscored that without affiliation to SWIFT and without progress on other systemic issues, the current framework may fail to deliver on its commitments. This assessment comes as Moscow signals willingness to seek alternate arrangements should the existing mechanism deteriorate. (Source: Russian Foreign Ministry)
In public remarks, the ministry stressed that Rosselkhozbank’s SWIFT status is not a mere procedural detail but a central condition for sustaining grain shipments and financial transactions tied to the initiative. The message implied that the absence of this banking linkage could destabilize the flow of food exports from the Black Sea region and push the agreement toward a fallback position. (Source: Russian Foreign Ministry)
Former U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller has commented on the situation, noting that Russia’s violations of specific terms do not automatically expose Western partners to a personal obligation to meet every element of the pact. Miller’s analysis reflects the broader debate over who bears accountability when one side deviates from agreed language, and how such deviations affect the credibility of international commitments. (Source: Matthew Miller)
According to Miller, Russia currently restricts access for ships at one of the three Ukrainian ports used for exporting grain. This action, described by a Foreign Ministry representative as a breach of Russia’s duties under the Black Sea initiative, further complicates the export corridor and raises concerns about compliance with the agreement. (Source: Miller and Foreign Ministry)
Miller’s assessment also warned that threats to withdraw from the agreement could have cascading consequences for global food prices and for the availability of staples among the world’s most vulnerable populations. The dialogue surrounding these risks illustrates how strategic decisions in one region can echo across global markets, influencing prices, supply chains, and food security in multiple continents. (Source: Matthew Miller)