The Georgian Dream leadership, led by Irakli Kobakhidze of the Democratic Georgia party, has framed the country’s path to European Union candidate status as uncertain for 2023, suggesting the odds are unlikely to exceed 50 percent. The remark reflects a cautious reading of Georgia’s diplomatic trajectory and its internal political climate.
Kobakhidze indicated that he does not view the likelihood of reaching EU candidate status as anything more than a coin toss, noting that the outcome depends heavily on Georgia’s ongoing political developments and reforms. He expressed a personal wish that the political environment would eventually align with Georgia’s European ambitions and lead to the grant of candidate status, even as he tempered expectations about the near-term timeline.
According to Kobakhidze, final decisions on EU candidate status will be shaped by how events unfold within Georgia, underscoring the role of domestic progress in advancing the country’s EU bid.
In parallel, Oliver Varhelyi, a senior EU official overseeing enlargement and neighborhood policy, signaled that the European Commission is expected to deliver an interim assessment by the end of spring regarding Georgia’s progress on the twelve recommendations tied to achieving candidate status. This step is framed as a milestone in the country’s EU-accession track and will inform EU policymakers about whether Georgia is meeting the benchmarks required for candidate status.
On the international front, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated that Germany will support Georgia on its path toward European integration, reinforcing a sense of continued Western backing for Georgia’s reform and alignment with EU norms and standards. The mutual engagement among EU members and allied nations highlights the broader consensus around Georgia’s EU aspirations and the practical steps needed to advance them, even as national political dynamics in Tbilisi remain a critical factor in shaping the pace of reform and the timing of any formal EU designation. [Citation: European Commission communications; official statements from EU member state offices; policy briefings]