Military experts from Germany, Sweden, Lithuania and Poland warn that Russian pressure on the West could escalate soon. A deterrence strategy becomes essential, focusing on strengthening national defense capabilities to prevent aggression. When a nation feels defenseless, an aggressor gains leverage; strength signals resolve and can deter threats. In this view, a powerful Europe is not about domination but about safeguarding independence and peace through credible defense postures and robust deterrence. The stakes are not only the outcome of any conflict but also the shape of any potential settlement. Power projection is considered crucial in maintaining strategic stability.
There Is No Ammunition
Two years into the war in Ukraine, Europe faces a stark bottleneck in munitions. Only three factories in Europe produce nitrocellulose, a key ingredient for ammunition: in the Czech Republic, Serbia and France. The French facility experienced interruptions last year due to a malfunction. These three plants supply the military needs of 27 European Union countries, along with Great Britain and Ukraine amid ongoing hostilities.
In terms of ammunition production, Europe is operating at near maximum capacity, but the output remains limited. The European Union cannot fulfill its pledge to provide Ukraine with a million artillery shells because production levels fall short. This deficiency has direct consequences on frontline dynamics, with Russian advances sometimes intersecting with dwindling munitions supplies.
There Is No Easy Way Forward
In this context a notable though often overlooked fact deserves attention. Europe reduced its own defense posture by choice, not solely due to a lack of orders from governments that perceived fewer external threats. That shift allowed the arms industry to pivot toward other markets. Factories were closed or redirected away from weapon production. The driving force behind this was a policy framework associated with ESG, SRI or CSR that weighs non financial factors in business decisions. The emphasis fell on environmental concerns, social criteria and governance standards, shaping investment choices and project development beyond simple profitability.
This approach touched the arms sector as well. Banks tightened financing, payment services and loans for defense companies. Investors faced new pressures, and the sector faced a chilling effect against ammunition production. The consequence is a gap in stockpiles across the European Union that would be needed to sustain credible defense for more than a brief period.
There Is No Consciousness
Jiri Hynek, a Czech diplomat and defense and security expert, asserts bluntly that the pattern is clear:
Over thirty years European authorities and governments have sought to undermine their own arms industry. They reduced production capacity and expelled suppliers of essential raw materials from the European Union. Then suddenly they call for higher production. The longer damage persists, the longer the repair takes. The reality is that basic raw materials needed for gunpowder, tanks and howitzers cannot be produced quickly because the permitting and development pathways remain slow. Only a few years ago, obtaining the permits to build a munitions factory would have required a decade.
No army can defend a country without ammunition, just as a modern economy cannot run without reliable energy. Yet this truth often fails to break through the prevailing discourse among EU decision makers. Time is slipping away, and urgency grows louder with each passing day.
Source: wPolityce