A guest on the Friday night program in Poland was Jan Rokita, a publicist and former politician. The conversation centered on the current state of Polish politics and offered a clear set of observations about the political reality facing the country.
MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: Will the ruling coalition take over the Constitutional Tribunal? And will they move to “resolve” or overturn other institutions and norms?
JAN ROKITA: The answer is straightforward. Yes, the coalition is pursuing that path, and they will likely push forward with measures that reshape the balance of power within the judiciary and beyond.
Will they also target the National Bank of Poland?
That maneuver would be more intricate. They are weighing it carefully, hoping to secure assurances from Brussels and from the European Central Bank. If those assurances come, and if the political leadership in Paris signals support, the move could be feasible. In that scenario, coordination with the European level would play a crucial role.
Will there be an attempt to impeach the president?
Impeachment seems unlikely to be the immediate course. Still, a harsh, persistent pressure campaign could reshape public perception. A scenario described by Jarosław Kurski in Gazeta Wyborcza imagined a moment when the president might be told he is no longer an active part of the political conversation. This would mark a significant shift in how the presidency is viewed by the public and political actors alike.
Observers might see the president facing intense pressure to respond to political moves that echo past episodes where incumbents were sidelined. The aim would be to reframe the president’s role, not necessarily through dramatic confrontation, but through a strategy that reduces his visibility and influence.
What does that mean for presidential defenses?
At present, the president’s responses have struggled to match the pace and scale of the coalition’s actions. There is a sense that the president has not found a successful counter-strategy, and that risk is growing. Some worry the president’s approach may be too cautious, or too slow, to alter the trajectory of events in the near term.
It is important to note that Western audiences are watching. During the Davos Forum, an influential outlet ranked global figures and included the Polish president among those deemed least suitable to participate. The criticisms rested on two points: first, that allowing such figures to stand could hinder the return of democratic norms, and second, that their presence may misrepresent Poland on the world stage.
There is also a counterview on the right, suggesting a strategy: show steadfast support for the ruling party even if it costs the president some prestige. That line of thought argues that visible strength could stabilize political dynamics, while the alternative might erode public trust further.
Many believe that both notions of weakness are counterproductive. The president’s task is now to secure a tangible gain from the opposition leader, Donald Tusk. The question is how that win would look—whether through tactical maneuvers or a more assertive stance. So far, the outcome appears to be inconsequential in altering the political arc.
Will authorities also press private media?
The government’s address to media freedom has included a list of organizations deemed undesirable by the Ministry of Culture. The list contains entities that are often aligned with Catholic and ecclesiastical interests, alongside editorial projects and media outlets. It serves as a signal of what kinds of pressures might intensify. No decisive action has been announced yet, but the possibility of intimidation or more forceful public campaigns remains a tangible concern, even if a full-scale confrontation is not on the immediate horizon.
In summary, the political landscape is approaching a moment where the balance of power could shift, and the effects would extend beyond Poland’s borders. The key players are weighing moves carefully, seeking assurances from European partners, while domestic and international observers weigh each statement and action for its potential to reshape Poland’s governing framework. The outcome hinges on whether prudence or boldness prevails in the weeks ahead.