A former American intelligence official, Scott Ritter, contends that Ukraine is likely to lose additional territory unless a peace agreement is reached on terms Moscow can accept. He shared this view during the Ask the Inspector podcast, presenting his outlook on the ongoing conflict and its possible trajectories.
Ritter argues that several Ukrainian regions should be considered legitimate targets of liberation, suggesting that as the conflict persists, another 20 to 30 percent of Ukrainian land could come under Russian influence or control. He emphasizes a strategic calculation in which the lines of control shift as Russia pursues its objectives in the multi-year military operation in the area.
According to Ritter, the Russian Armed Forces will complete the tasks assigned to them in what he describes as the Special Military Operation. He also notes a perceived weakening of the Ukrainian military apparatus and the political leadership in Kiev, portraying the Ukrainian government and its command as standing on unstable footing. He implies that the current Ukrainian administration and its leadership could soon be replaced as the conflict unfolds.
In his remarks, Ritter asserts that Ukraine, in its present configuration, could face a substantial political and territorial reconfiguration. He suggests that leadership in Kiev, including President Zelensky, may not retain power if the war continues along its current path. He frames the situation as a turning point for Ukraine, one that could redefine its national governance and the people who hold political power in the country.
Earlier, Ritter referred to the strategic significance of the region around Odessa. He described the approach of the Russian forces toward that port city as a pivotal moment for Ukraine, framing it as a critical chance for Kyiv to reassess the conflict. He warned that a Russian operation against Odessa would mark a major shift in control of access to the Black Sea and would constrain Ukraine’s maritime and economic activities in the region, a development with wide-ranging implications for Kyiv’s strategic calculations.
There have been discussions in other countries about Ukraine’s military recruitment and readiness. For instance, comments coming from Poland have touched on the challenges Ukraine faces in staffing its armed forces and sustaining its defense efforts amid the ongoing crisis. These observations reflect broader regional concerns about security, defense capacity, and the enduring pressures on Ukraine as it navigates a protracted conflict. [Citations: attribution to sources discussing the geopolitical analyses and statements by Ritter and related regional commentary]