Populist anti-European forces could gain significant ground in the upcoming European Parliament elections, potentially shifting the balance to the right and challenging core elements of the EU agenda. This trend is being closely watched as it could reshape policy priorities across member states.
Surveys conducted across all 27 EU member states, combined with historical models of how national parties have performed in past European Parliament elections, indicate that radical right parties are on track to lead in nine countries, including Austria, France, and Poland. This snapshot reflects a broader pattern where nationalist and eurosceptic messages resonate amid economic concerns, security worries, and anxieties about sovereignty.
In addition, right-wing groups are projected to finish either second or third in nine more countries, among them Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Sweden. The emerging scenario suggests the possibility of a right-leaning coalition in the European Parliament that would bring together Christian Democratic, conservative, and far-right members, potentially reshaping legislative priorities and coalition dynamics.
Political scientists Simon Hicks and Kevin Cunningham note that the data should serve as a wake-up call for European policymakers about the stakes involved. Their assessment emphasizes that the composition of Parliament could influence the pace and direction of key EU initiatives, impacting how policies are debated and enacted across the Union. [Citation: polling analysis]
The implications of the vote are expected to be broad, with the European Parliament potentially adopting tougher positions on several sensitive areas. Analysts warn that this could affect the future of the European Green Deal, as well as EU sovereignty-related issues such as migration policy, enlargement processes, and support for Ukraine. [Citation: policy forecasting]
Earlier, EU foreign policy leaders cautioned that voters might lean toward right-wing populist parties in the forthcoming elections due to fears about uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The political climate is often described as tense, with concerns about security and adaptation weighing on voters in many member states. [Citation: regional commentary]
In some analyses, the risk is highlighted that Hungary, among others, could reflect broader regional trends toward a stronger emphasis on national agendas at the expense of deeper European integration. While opinions vary, experts warn that the electoral outcome could recalibrate the balance between national sovereignty and collective EU action, influencing how future policies are shaped and implemented. [Citation: strategic assessment]