The Opposition Could Shape Poland’s 2024 Budget If They Form a Government
In a scenario where the opposition gains a majority in the Sejm and moves to form a government in October or November, observers expect a stronger influence on the 2024 budget. Ryszard Petru has been active in the Sejm since the early days, weighing in on the direction of October elections and the overall budget trajectory.
By late September the cabinet presented a draft budget for 2024. It projected state revenues at 684.5 billion zlotys, with the expenditure cap at 849.3 billion zlotys. The resulting deficit was estimated at 164.8 billion zlotys. A press release from the Prime Minister’s Chancellery indicated assumptions of 3% real GDP growth and 6.6% inflation on an annual basis for the coming year.
Will inflation rise in the coming year?
Petru warned that inflation could run hotter next year, arguing that inflation had been underestimated. He noted concerns about fuel prices and other cost pressures that could push consumer prices higher.
Asked about the likelihood of the 2024 budget being adopted by year-end, he suggested that if the opposition, which currently holds a majority in the Sejm, were to form a government earlier in the autumn, the budget would be reshaped for the following year. He emphasized that a government installed in October or November would influence how early-year spending is managed and how priorities are set in the initial months of the year.
Petru added that the budget assumptions were unlikely to bring substantial changes to next year’s allocations if the opposition took over, since the government would still operate under the new configuration for part of the year.
In practical terms, he suggested that meaningful budget changes would be limited during the first months of the new administration.
He recalled the opposition’s campaign pledges and indicated that several goals—including more than 800 initiatives next year—would be pursued in the budget process.
Petru underscored the importance of stabilizing public finances. He argued that consolidation should begin with the state’s off-budget funds, which require integration with the main budget. He described this as a critical step that could reduce the cost of servicing the national debt and create breathing room in the near term.
He estimated potential savings from consolidation at 10 to 15 billion zlotys, achievable through better alignment of the budget with off-budget funds and a focus on convergence. These actions, he suggested, would ease debt burdens and provide space for maneuver in the coming months.
Petru also referenced funds from Poland’s National Reconstruction Plan (KPO), noting that timing would depend on how quickly a new government is formed and the stance of the presidency. He asserted confidence that KPO resources could reach Poland relatively quickly and that they would boost investment, support lower inflation, and promote growth.
Recent data from the Ministry of Finance, released shortly after elections, allegedly show a slower growth in revenues this year alongside a faster uptick in spending. Petru warned that the resulting deficit could exceed what is currently projected in amendments to the Budget Act.
Cooperation with liberal and left-leaning groups
Petru was also asked how cooperation with the left might unfold. Both the Third Way and the Left have stressed investments in education and health care. He asserted that Poland’s economy and finances must be repaired first, and he estimated that the process would take about a year. He believed a compromise with the left would be possible, depending on the timing and the specific measures chosen.
He stressed the need to accurately diagnose the state’s budgetary and financial situation, pointing to recent Finance Ministry data that suggested the situation could be more challenging than the current government has indicated.
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Cited sources: wPolityce and PAP