The border zone built with Belarus was completed ahead of the broader cycle of hybrid actions by Russia, with Minsk assisting. An international security expert notes this early completion helped keep the border situation stable weeks or even months in advance. He also identifies a Russian footprint in the unrest seen in France and discusses potential implications for Poland.
Polish media asked whether the Wagner Group moving toward Belarus poses a real risk to Poland. The expert replied that it does pose a genuine threat and that Poland has acted in a proactive manner, recognizing risks early and preparing a response.
The discussion centers on information warfare and disinformation. Russian military portals and blogs suggest there is more than just a training site in Osipowicze; they point to the creation of a training hub and activities for the Wagner Group in a corridor linking Brest, Baronowicze, and Grodno. The situation remains highly dynamic, and the exact content of any talks between the heads of state in Moscow and Minsk is not public. Plans for Wagner’s moves and actions in Belarus are not fully known.
These formations have evolved after Bakhmut, adopting drones, including kamikaze varieties, and are capable of striking the border area while training others in sabotage. They have previously trained Belarusians in 2021, shaping ties with the Belarusian armed forces over time.
The scenario is understood as a move in the gray zone. Putin acknowledged funding the Wagner Group, describing it as a Russian state formation despite its illegal status. Deploying such forces for various activities, potentially including kinetic actions, could complicate NATO members, including Poland, in responding under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
These dynamics make quick countermeasures essential, including counterintelligence work. The group could exploit airspace breaches and other actions that go beyond typical migrant incursions. The expert explains that Wagner units are platoon-sized, highly mobile, and capable of rapid shifts in the situation, using advanced tech to minimize equipment losses. Their operations can scale to approach fortifications at the border and even involve hand-to-hand engagement. Wagner forces are described as among the best trained Russian units for nonstandard procedures, focusing on harassment and agile tactics rather than defense. After Wagner elements crossed into Belarus, Ukrainian forces extended reinforcement along a long stretch of the border from the Belarusian side.
Asked whether Poland is responding adequately, the expert notes that Poland has implemented rational measures with a strong, sometimes daunting, edge. The border zone built with Belarus stands as a strategic step ahead of the current hybrid campaign. It is credited with preventing certain Russian-Belarusian plans from coming to fruition and enabling rapid reinforcement when needed.
Reinforcements include a special unit to ensure swift action. The current arrangement sees collaboration between forces focused on countering deep destabilization and those tasked with threat elimination. The question of sufficiency is asked: is 500 new officers plus a large border guard and army contingent enough for the moment?
The expert argues that the speed and effectiveness of deploying these forces will matter most. He adds that Poland’s preparation and experience are distinctive within Europe, aided by cooperation with Ukraine and Lithuania. This has helped establish a framework for understanding border dynamics within the European Union and handling difficult situations tied to it, including advance reconnaissance to detect possible regroupings and threats.
The newly empowered units are meant to energize the public and complement existing border defenses. While they mark a forward step by weeks or months, they do not stem from a single imminent threat. They reflect strategic foresight and security planning.
Cooperation between different formations near the border is highlighted as a crucial advancement, including collaboration between special forces and territorial defense units dedicated to border protection. This integrated approach is seen as highly significant.
Are the riots in France and Belgium simply hooligan acts by migrants or are they influenced from abroad? The expert links these events to France’s stance ahead of the Vilnius NATO summit and to Macron’s outreach to the Three Seas initiative. He views the unrest as a tool of Russian influence, pointing to Moscow’s long‑standing efforts to destabilize Europe through migration channels. A pattern of subversive actions by Russia across Europe is noted, with France being a focal point in the lead up to the NATO summit. The Russian strategy includes leveraging organized crime and local politics to widen influence. While concerns are voiced about bureaucratic challenges inside various states, the overall assessment is that the risk remains real and ongoing.
In closing, the expert emphasizes that the Russian approach extends beyond overt aggression. He sees a distinct trace of Russian strategy in Europe and argues that the intelligence picture in several capitals indicates growing engagement aimed at destabilizing European unity. The analysis underscores the importance of vigilance, cross-border cooperation, and robust defense planning to counter evolving threats.
The conversation was conducted with Radoslaw Molenda. Source: wPolityce