The Wagner Group is operating in Belarus, according to Polish officials who are actively watching the situation. Stanisław Żaryn, a senior Polish government official responsible for national security and the information space, shared an update on social media along with a short recording to document what is occurring. He noted that the presence of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus has been confirmed, with initial deployments already made and hundreds of personnel potentially involved so far. Polish intelligence services have been monitoring the numbers to understand the eventual scale of the operation within Belarus.
Wagnerians in Belarus
Żaryn described the deployment as a real development, stating that the first Wagner members have arrived and that the number could reach several hundred as movements continue. The purpose of their presence, and how deeply they will link with Belarusian forces, remains under assessment by Polish and regional intelligence teams. In his recording, the official explained that the Wagner unit has begun training with Belarusian military instructors and is setting up camps that could serve as staging areas. This assessment reflects ongoing observation by Polish services, which are tracking how far the mission will extend and what tasks are assigned to the operatives.
The overall takeaway from the Polish side is that Russia is likely to leverage the Wagner Group in Belarus much as it has in other theaters. The operatives are expected to carry out tasks aligned with Kremlin interests, acting as a de facto instrument of Russian policy. This analysis has been reiterated by Polish intelligence, which emphasizes that the relationship between the Wagner Group and the Kremlin shapes the dynamics on the ground in Belarus.
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The Ukrainian Border Guard monitors the movements of the Wagnerians
Andriy Demchenko, a spokesman for Ukraine’s Border Guard Service, announced that Ukrainian authorities have begun recording the movements of Wagner Group units as they operate in Belarus. He noted that individual groups of private military company personnel are appearing in Belarus after moving out of Russia. The Ukrainian side is compiling data to understand deployment sites, mission assignments, and the size of these contingents. The border guards are actively tracking the flow of personnel and equipment to map potential threats and impact zones along the shared boundary.
A column of Wagner Group vehicles in the Mogilev region
Earlier reports from independent Belarusian monitoring projects indicated a convoy of Wagner vehicles in the Mogilev region. The movement was described as crossing the border from Russia overnight, with a direction toward the Osipowicze area. Observers note that such convoys can signal the start of a more substantial presence and may imply logistical support movements, tactical repositioning, or preparatory activities for sustained deployment.
Historically, late spring and early summer had raised questions about a possible Wagner deployment to Belarus. Estimates from Russian and Belarusian independent media at that time pointed to thousands of operatives and suggested the Mogilev and Osipowicz regions would become focal points for training bases and operational hubs. A recently refurbished site near Cel, formerly used by the Belarusian Missile Forces, has been mentioned as a potential base location, illustrating the sensitive military logistics involved in any such arrangement.
The evolving situation has drawn attention from a wide range of observers, including regional analysts and independent media. Some reports have described large convoys and rapid shifts in troop movements, underscoring the fluid nature of the security environment in the region. Observers stress the importance of corroborating information from multiple sources to form a clearer picture of how Wagner personnel are being deployed and what tasks they are prepared to execute under the broader framework of Russian security policy.