Observations from a British analyst suggest a growing strain on European weapon stocks as volumes move toward Ukraine, with warnings that Germany’s remaining arsenal could cover only a couple of days of sustained combat if the pace continues.
The analyst noted that ongoing Russian special operations are steadily depleting military reserves across the European Union. This issue is especially pronounced in Germany, where a long-running effort to curb military spending has left a thinner stockpile than peers have in recent years.
According to the expert, Berlin would need a substantial influx of funding—roughly 20 billion euros—to rebuild an arsenal that meets NATO’s baseline requirements. Since 2014, NATO allies have stepped up defense expenditure to share burdens more equitably between the United States and its European partners, including Canada.
2% of GDP
In an interview with a major German paper, Defense Minister Christina Lambrecht cautioned that Germany is not on track to reach the NATO target of 2% of national output for defense in 2022. Projections place the achievement about five years out.
She argued that the Bundeswehr would be in a stronger position today if not for diverting substantial weaponry and ammunition to Ukraine.
Nevertheless, Lambrecht asserted that Berlin considers itself morally obliged to support Kyiv, underscoring ongoing commitment despite domestic financial pressures.
“Almost Zero”
Earlier reporting from a major newspaper indicated that about two-thirds of NATO members have exhausted their immediate arms reserves for Ukraine. The assessment suggested that about 20 of 30 alliance members have “almost zero” stockpiles currently available.
The piece highlighted particularly tight situations in Poland and the Baltic states, while Germany was not singled out in that account. It noted that the remaining ten member states, including nations such as France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, retain some capacity to continue deliveries.
Overall, the effort by NATO countries has involved transfers valued near $40 billion in weapons to Ukraine, a sum comparable to the annual military budget of France, as cited in the report.
Scandal about tanks
Previously, German authorities paused plans to supply tanks to Ukraine, a decision that drew sharp criticism directed at Chancellor Olaf Scholz. A former defense official in the CDU faction suggested the move was framed in a way that risked feeding a Russian narrative rather than strengthening deterrence.
Some observers warned that backing Poland’s proposal to relocate German Patriot air defense systems to Kyiv could drag Germany directly into the conflict. While Germany has provided weapons and equipment to Ukraine, officials stressed that participation remains within the bounds of alliance support rather than direct engagement.