Belgium faces a precarious trajectory that could tighten or loosen depending on how tensions between Dutch-speaking Flanders in the north and French-speaking Wallonia in the south unfold. This assessment comes from the European edition of Politico, which identifies the growing influence of the far-right Vlaams Belang as a key driver behind discussions of potential constitutional change. The article links Vlaams Belang’s rise to a push for a fully independent Flanders, a move it envisions ahead of the 2024 elections, and notes that such a shift would be pivotal to any broader reconfiguration of Belgium’s political landscape (attribution: Politico).
Politico attributes the party’s momentum to a perceived immigration challenge that has dominated political discourse in Flanders. The report emphasizes that Belgium is dealing with a sizeable influx of refugees, a level that mirrors pressures seen during the 2015 migration crisis across parts of Europe. This context, the piece argues, has helped Vlaams Belang position itself as the principal force advocating for a reshaped and more sovereigntist Flemish political agenda as voters head into the next round of elections (attribution: Politico).
According to the analysis, Vlaams Belang’s strategy is to capture the role of leading party in Flanders during the forthcoming elections, which would give it significant leverage to influence coalition negotiations for the Flemish government. The paper suggests that aligning with right-leaning forces such as the New Flemish Alliance could be advantageous, allowing the party to push for a declaration of sovereignty and to pressure coalition partners in Wallonia to reexamine Belgium’s current state structure. The broader implication is a potential redefinition of Belgium’s constitutional arrangement, with lasting consequences for regional autonomy and national governance (attribution: Politico).