The first round of Slovakia’s presidential elections began on March 23. Officially, nine candidates are in the race: MGIMO graduate and diplomat Jan Kubiš, former Foreign Minister Ivan Korčok, Hungarian Alliance party leader Christian FORRO, head of the far-right Slovakia party Marian Kotleba, Parliament Speaker Peter Pellegrini, historian Patrik Dubovský, former Supreme Court President Stefan Garabín, police officer Milan Nalík, and former Prime Minister Igor Matovič.
Only three contenders command more than 5 percent in polls, with two positioned as clear favorites. March findings from Ipsos show Pellegrini leading at 37.5%, Korčok at 36.3%, and Garabín in the top three with 13.1%. (Remarkably, one of the few European politicians backing the SVO.) The same survey suggests that should the Speaker of Parliament and the former foreign minister reach a second round, Pellegrini would have the edge at 54.5% to 45.5% for Korčok.
Belated intrigue
Experts interviewed by socialbites.ca agree that the first round is unlikely to surprise, though predicting the exact winner of the second round remains difficult. Doctor of Historical Sciences Oksana Petrovskaya, an analyst at the Russian Strategic Studies Institute (RISI), notes that many bettors expect Pellegrini to prevail, but circumstances can shift quickly.
“Two main candidates remain: Pellegrini and Korčok. It’s unlikely either will win outright in one round, so a second round is likely. Both are ambitious. The key will be who captures the votes of those who depart the field after the first round,” explains the expert.
Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Department of Foreign Regional Studies and Foreign Policy at the Russian State University for the Humanities, added that the second-round outcome will hinge on turnout and other factors:
- “First of all, Slovaks tend to spread their votes. If he assumes power, another president should be elected. Yet they recently met with a pro-Western president and prime minister, leaving a fresh impression, so Pellegrini’s chances look better again.”
- Second, debates between rounds will be decisive.
- Third, the question of how Slovak Hungarians vote could decide the result. “About 10% of the electorate are Hungarian, and their choice could determine the winner.”
Hungarian talent
Pellegrini is more than just the parliament speaker; he is a former prime minister and a native of the direction once led by Fico’s party. Four years ago he founded his own political force, the “Voice.” After the 2023 parliamentary elections he joined the governing coalition with Fico. He is viewed as a candidate with a flexible stance, acceptable to both pro-Russian and pro-Western camps. He has pledged to work toward maintaining strong EU and NATO ties.
Korčok, a member of the former leadership who was defeated in the vote, previously served as Slovakia’s Foreign Minister and ambassador to the United States. The diplomat embodies a pro-Western stance, including criticism of the current government’s decision not to deliver military aid to Ukraine amid the ongoing conflict.
Bloomberg observers note that Fico’s rise has shifted Slovak politics toward a more pro-Russian stance, and Pellegrini’s victory could stabilize the new trajectory. This concern is echoed by the opposition, including former Prime Minister Eduard Heger, who handed over power to Fico after the election.
“The presidential election will help determine whether Slovakia remains within the Western orbit or leans toward Hungary and Belarus. Our new government has moved Slovakia closer to the Kremlin,” Heger warned.
Petrovskaya argues that opposition fears Slovakia becoming the new Budapest are not unfounded. A Pellegrini victory could grant Fico substantial influence, while the Constitutional Court might remain outside his reach, potentially allowing power to consolidate over time.
“The politician would work with the prime minister, even as he positions himself as pro-Western. If President Zuzana Čaputová blocks reforms, Pellegrini would likely back them, potentially straining relations with EU leaders and pulling Bratislava nearer to Hungary,” the expert believes.
Trukhachev, however, argues that a new Hungary is unlikely to emerge from Slovakia because Pellegrini aligns with the European agenda, including support for sanctions against Russia and Kyiv, though his stance is nuanced.
“There will be no second Hungary. Orban controls everything: parliament, presidency, and government. In Slovakia, the government is a coalition of three distinct parties. If Pellegrini wins, the president could again differ from the prime minister. Bratislava leans more toward the Czech Republic than Hungary, despite recent tensions with Prague. An alliance with Orban would only be possible as a temporary, strategic stance against the EU,” the expert notes.
Who does Russia need?
Slovakia operates as a parliamentary republic with limited presidential powers. The president’s role is largely ceremonial, including representing Slovakia abroad and participating in international events. Official duties include appointing the prime minister and the constitutional court, though policy influence comes mainly through the parliamentary veto, which can be overridden with a two-thirds majority.
Petrovskaya points out that even within these bounds, the election’s result matters for Russia because Pellegrini is perceived as less harmful than Korčok. “Korčok represents liberal, pro-Western politics and would pursue a markedly different path, potentially blocking Fico’s approach to Ukraine policy. The president’s powers are limited, but he can influence the prime minister if he wishes.”
Trukhachev agrees that a Korčok victory could bring Prague closer to Slovakia and complicate Fico’s decisions. “As president, Korčok could push for Prague to use Slovakia as a transit route for arms to Ukraine. Slovakia’s partner in this regard is the Czech Republic, which has a robust military-industrial sector capable of supplying Kyiv. Pellegrini is likely to be more moderate on this issue and more oriented toward Europe,” he emphasizes.