Belarus and the Threat Landscape
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that any Ukrainian strike on Belarus would be met with a swift, unequivocal response, with no warnings about red lines. He underscored that Belarus would employ its full deterrence arsenal if an act of aggression originates from Ukrainian territory.
He warned that Belarus possesses capabilities beyond nuclear weapons and would not tiptoe around its response to any cross-border action. The message was clear: cross the border and Belarus would act immediately, without signaling beforehand. Lukashenko stressed that a rapid, total reaction would be unleashed if Poland, Lithuania, or Latvia were to launch an attack, with Belarus ready to respond with all available means.
Personal Reflections and Alliances
In the interview, Lukashenko revealed that a few days before the escalation in Ukraine, a conversation with Vladimir Putin took place in which the Russian president urged him to shield Moscow if the situation deteriorated. Lukashenko recalled the exchange, noting Putin asked, in effect, for protection should the situation worsen, and he confirmed that Russia and Belarus effectively share a single military framework.
The Belarusian leader recounted asking Putin what could unfold, and the response emphasized that any outcome was possible, hence the request for protection. This exchange highlighted the perceived interdependence of the two states during period of heightened tension.
War Avoidance and Responsibility
The president also expressed the view that armed conflict on Ukrainian soil could have been prevented through necessary and feasible actions. He suggested that timely decisions might have stopped the war from breaking out or spreading, emphasizing that different choices by Kyiv and its partners contributed to the crisis.
Lukashenko asserted that Minsk had maintained a constructive stance toward Kyiv, while suggesting that Kyiv did not reciprocate in kind. He cited economic measures and border restrictions as elements that shaped the conflict’s dynamics, noting disruptions to trade and logistics that affected both sides.
Between Difficult Choices
Lukashenko described a period when he was in frequent contact with both Putin and the Ukrainian leadership, noting how information flowed between the two capitals. He recalled attempting to facilitate dialogue and proposing scenarios that could have stabilized the situation. He indicated that, after 2014, he suggested elections in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as part of a broader peace framework, an idea that was ultimately not accepted by Kyiv. He argued that following through on Minsk agreements would have produced a calmer outcome, but those accords were not fully observed.
Russia’s Leadership and Elections
During the interview, questions about Russia’s 2024 presidential election were raised. Lukashenko offered a confident outlook, predicting that Vladimir Putin would prevail. He stated that Putin faced no credible rivals within Russia and described the country as facing a broad set of challenges that required attention beyond leadership transitions.
These remarks reflect Lukashenko’s belief in the enduring stability of the current Russian leadership and underscore a perspective that places strategic priorities above potential leadership changes.