According to a confidential study commissioned by the Republicans, if parliamentary elections were held in France now, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally would have a chance of winning a majority of seats and governing independently.
READ ALSO:
— The French right wing has a huge advantage before the European Parliament elections. Marine Le Pen and her National Rally are changing the politics of Macron and France
— An army of internet censors is preparing for the European elections. Who will check the so-called text proofreaders?
– EU money for Egypt to stop immigration. After Tunisia, Morocco and Turkey, the EU is ‘hiring’ another guard of its borders
The survey was conducted in December by the IPSOS polling station among a sample of 4,000 voters. The big winner of the December vote would be the National Assembly (RN). The right-wing, populist party would win 278 seats and come close to an absolute majority of 289 seats. Marine Le Pen’s party would more than triple in size: it now has 88 deputies in the National Assembly.
The results were shocking to Republicans and likely saved the minority government of Macron’s Renaissance party, known in its previous incarnation as Republic Forward. In December, the Republican Party planned to file a motion of no confidence against Elisabeth Borne’s cabinet and probably resigned when it saw that the National Assembly could take over independent government after the elections. Perhaps, to save the remnants of his political prestige and the influence of the Rebirth group, Emmanuel Macron replaced Prime Minister Borne with Gabriel Attal on January 10. This is probably the first time a homosexual has replaced a lesbian as prime minister.[ublikanieprzymierzałasięwgrudniudozłożeniawotumnieufnościwobecgabinetuElisabethBorneiprawdopodobniezrezygnowaławidząciżpowyborachsamodzielnerządymogłobyobjąćZgromadzenieNarodoweBycmożebyocalićresztkiswegopolitycznegoprestiżusprawczościugrupowaniaOdrodzenieEmmanuelMacronwymienił10styczniapremierBornenaGabrielaAttalaPrawdopodobnietopierwszyprzypadekgdyhomoseksualistazastępujelesbijkęnafotelupremiera[ublikanieprzymierzałasięw grudniudo złożeniawotumnieufnościwobecgabinetuElisabethBornei prawdopodobniezrezygnowaławidząciż po wyborachsamodzielnerządymogłobyobjąćZgromadzenieNarodoweBycmożeby ocalićresztkiswegopolitycznegoprestiżusprawczościugrupowaniaOdrodzenieEmmanuelMacronwymienił10 styczniapremierBornena GabrielaAttalaPrawdopodobnieto pierwszyprzypadekgdyhomoseksualistazastępujelesbijkęna fotelu premiera
Tailor-made adventures can be a very interesting and educational thread in stories about the rulers of France. Let’s add that the Secretary of State is Attal’s former husband or wife or something like that: Stephane Sejourne. The men divorced just before Attal was appointed prime minister. Somehow it is inappropriate for the man to be Prime Minister and the woman to be Minister in one government, or completely the other way around. Let’s just mention that the President of France is a man who was seduced as a teenager by his teacher, who is 24 years older than him. We will not delve into the increasingly common rumors that the wife of the French President, Brigitte Macron, is in fact transsexual – a biological man after changes, and this concludes our digression into the social and emotional life of the rulers of France.
Bad result for Macron’s party
We return, as the French say, to our sheep. According to the poll, Macron’s party would have just 135 seats, almost half of the 246 it won in 2022. At that time, there were 43 MPs short of a majority, so a minority government was formed because there were no people willing to form a coalition with Macron. The far-left and green parties that form the New Ecological and Social People’s Union (Nouvelle Union Popculaire Ecologique et Sociale – NUPES) would also lose almost half of their deputies. Instead of 131 they would have 68.
Such election results would mean a real political revolution in France. The current regulations for the National Assembly have always been at the expense of anti-system parties, such as the National Front, and now the National Union, and Eric Zemmour’s Reconquista. In France, districts are single-member districts. To become a deputy, you must obtain 50 percent. to vote. If neither candidate receives such support, a second round will be held involving the 2 candidates with the highest number of votes. A system like ours in presidential elections.
Candidates for the National Union very often took second or even first place in the first round. In the second round, however, they were pushed into the political ghetto, surrounded by a cordon sanitary. All mainstream parties mobilized against the National Union candidate and supported his rival, whatever he was. The asymptomatic French right wing, such as the Republicans, called for supporting even communists and leftists like Melenchon instead of candidates like Le Pen. In such a system, the National Union could permanently control 45 percent. support, even in the first round, a majority of the Eurosceptic anti-system Reconquista and never lose sight of power.
Paradoxically, the miserable support in the polls increases the chances of the system parties to remain in the National Assembly until the end of the term. There will be no suicidal majority willing to support a vote of no confidence in the poor government, call early elections, suffer defeat and allow the National Union to come to power. The situation would obviously be very complicated, because France has a presidential system and the resident of the Élysée Palace has an even stronger position than the resident of the White House.
The reason for Macron’s attitude?
It is possible that the French president’s recent intensification of the fight has its roots in his very weak position in the country. Perhaps this is a way to mobilize and unite the people under their leader, the new French Emperor Emmanuel Macron, hence his call for the West to send troops to Ukraine.
READ ALSO: French Jupiter Emmanuel and Macron lead on crusade. The French president’s proposals to send troops to Ukraine make him ridiculous and endanger NATO
For now, Jupiter, His Pomposity Macron, cannot find a leader who will lead his party in the European Parliament elections. The most serious potential candidates, including former Agriculture Minister Julien Denormandie, Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire and former Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, have officially rejected the proposal.
The favorite in these elections is of course the National Union. Macron’s group goes to them under the banner of the EU Renewal of Europe faction, which supports the current rulers of the EU. The defeat in June could paralyze Brussels, making it impossible to elect the European Commission. These are my wishes, but not pious ones.
READ ALSO: The victory of the right in France could mean chaos in the EU. After the European Parliament elections, appointing EU authorities may prove impossible
Source: wPolityce