“There is a good chance, regardless of what the polls say, that PiS will succeed in mobilizing a large part of its electorate. And the electorate of the Third Way, KO or Left, discouraged by arguments, could then crumble,” says Dr. Hab. Olgierd Annusewicz from the University of Warsaw. According to the political scientist, Law and Justice could have returned to power if there had been earlier elections.
When the coalition falls apart
If the governing coalition collapses today and snap elections take place, there is a good chance, regardless of what the polls say, that Law and Justice will succeed in mobilizing a large part of its electorate. And the electorate of the Third Way, KO or Left, discouraged by the arguments, could then crumble
– said Annusewicz.
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According to the political scientist, the current government should realize that their electorate, tired of the arguments, could stay at home “and then the election outcome could be very different, even tragic from the perspective of the current government.”
If there is even an ounce of self-preservation in them, they will wave the sabre. But they will not use these sabers because this is a path from which there is no political withdrawal
– added.
Asked about the dispute within the coalition over abortion or health insurance premiums, Annusewicz predicts that more similar conflicts may arise “due to the divergent views within the governing coalition itself.”
We are dealing with a multi-layered coalition. Not only do we have a coalition of three parties, but each of these groups is a coalition
– added.
Disputes will break out
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According to the expert, arguments will arise during election campaigns because each party wants to distinguish itself.
I expect that the temperature of the dispute will drop after April 21 at the latest and remain at a stable fever level until the start of the EP campaign. Then we can expect fever again
– he assessed.
The political scientist also referred to the next hundred days of government and accountability for the implementation of election promises.
The balance for the coalition is positive. This is also reflected in polls, which show a significant increase in support for the coalition and at the same time a significant decrease in support for Law and Justice. This is one of the elements from which we can conclude that the balance sheet is positive. Will it be enough to stay in power in three years and nine months? Probably not. But on the other hand, there are still 3 years and 9 months to add a few more things to the list of goals achieved
– added.
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porridge/cat
Source: wPolityce