Military experts from Germany, Sweden, Lithuania and Poland predict that Russian aggression against the West is only a matter of time. The best solution in such a situation would be a deterrence policy, that is, building up one’s own armed potential that would force the enemy to abandon attack plans. Your own powerlessness not only provokes the enemy to attack, but also to dictate terms. Defenseless Europe does not need to be attacked militarily, but must be forced to accept the Russian ultimatum to avoid destruction and inevitable defeat. Not only the outcome of the war, but also the form of peace may be at stake. That’s why power projection is so important.
There is no ammunition
Meanwhile, after two years of war in Ukraine, there are only three factories in Europe producing nitrocellulose, an ingredient needed for the production of ammunition: in the Czech Republic, Serbia and France (the latter factory had to halt production for some time last year due to a malfunction). These three factories currently serve the military needs of 27 European Union countries, Great Britain and the embattled Ukraine.
When it comes to ammunition production, our continent is currently making maximum use of its production capabilities, but these possibilities are not great. The EU cannot even fulfill its promise to supply Ukraine with a million artillery shells because it simply cannot produce them. And this is – as the development of the events shows – one of the most important ways to gain advantage at the front. The fact that the Ukrainians are being expelled from other areas by the Russians is related to the shortage of ammunition supplies.
There is no way
In this context, it is worth paying attention to a little-noticed fact. Europe disarmed at its own request, not only because of the lack of orders from its own governments, which saw no outside threats and therefore ignored the need to maintain their own defense potential. In such a situation, the arms industry could fulfill orders from other parts of the world. Nevertheless, factories were closed or switched to other production. This was due to the policy pursued in Europe called ESG (Environmental Social Governance), SRI (Socially Responsible Investing) or CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility). It is about the use of criteria in business other than just economic ones. That is why investments are selected and projects developed based on social factors, taking into account, for example, climate and environmental policies or the implementation of LGBT-friendly requirements.
This policy has not only affected fossil fuel companies, but also the arms industry. Banks therefore began to refuse companies from this sector to open accounts, make payments and grant loans. Investors were effectively discouraged from investing their money in the said sector. The production of ammunition did not fit in with the concept of ethical entrepreneurship and sustainable investing. The result is that no country in the European Union today has adequate stockpiles of ammunition that would be enough to effectively defend itself for more than a week.
There is no consciousness
Jiri Hynek, Czech diplomat and defense and security expert, puts it bluntly:
For thirty years, European authorities and European governments have tried to damage their own arms industry. (…) They reduced production capacity and expelled producers of basic raw materials from the European Union. And now suddenly they say that production needs to be increased. And we know that the longer something is damaged, the longer it takes to repair it. I cannot imagine how it would be possible to increase the production of basic raw materials necessary for the production of gunpowder, tanks or howitzers. And no one has changed the rules yet. Just three years ago, it would have taken ten years to obtain all the permits to build a munitions factory.
No army will be able to defend the country without ammunition, just as no economy can function without electricity. However, this truth is difficult to penetrate into the consciousness of EU elites. And we have less and less time.
Source: wPolityce