Last week was the studio’s poll Social changes was the first to point to a surge in support for Law and Justice.
READ: OUR RESEARCH. A sensational result of Law and Justice. “Bonus for unity, offense and focus on really important topics”
Despite the attempt to dismiss the research from the Third Republic of Poland camp, subsequent laboratories, including CBOS, confirmed the trend.
The wave of growing support for Jarosław Kaczyński’s camp, which has been conducting a precise, dynamic election campaign for several days, is clear. But how high?
The latest research from the Social Changes studio commissioned by the wPolityce.pl portal points to a significant, even sensational, breakthrough. The front four appear.
Let’s look at the details.
If elections to the Polish parliament were to take place this Sunday, United Right would vote 40 percent of those surveyed (+1 percent compared to last week’s survey).
Civic Coalition what she could count on 31 percentage of votes (+2)
Confederation has support 11 percentage of respondents (-2)
Left no change: 7 percent (0)
It weakens a bit Poland 2050 by Szymon Hołownia – 4 percent (-1)
He also loses PSL – support for a party in our study 3 percent (-1)
Kukiz’15 And Agreement no change – after 1 per cent
Traditionally, we have been looking at support for individual parties for years, so that we can maintain relative continuity. But of course we also have a variant with the Third Way coalition.
Here the corrections are small, an increase of 1 percentage point compared to PO, Konfederacja and Lewica. Just for this Third way has less than Poland 2050 and PSL. Could the coalition project not add something for both parties, but could it take away something?
In this context, what are the chances of this surprise alliance crossing the 8 percent threshold for a coalition? Not very optimistic.
The second conclusion: the momentum of the Confederacy is clearly over.
And the third, also predicted by the analysts of the wPolityce.pl portal: the closer the elections are, the greater the polarization, the concentration of voters on the largest parties and the less space for smaller formations. This process will grow.
Let’s look at the frequency:
_The survey was conducted using the CAWI (Computer Assisted Web Interview) method on August 25-28, 2023 on an online panel of a nationwide, representative (in terms of: gender, age, size of residence) sample of Poland. N=1040 people participated in the study. _
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Source: wPolityce