A major “citizen” survey for “Gazeta Wyborcza” conducted by the Kantar Public studio really made a lot of noise, although not necessarily the one the event organizers had hoped for. A few days after publication, the conclusion accepted by most of the political class and most of the media is clear: no constellation gives the opposition a certain victory. Also – according to the analysis of Dr. Maciej Onasz, a political scientist from the Department of Political Systems at the University of Lodz, a joint list of the Platform, Poland 2050, Links and PSL:
That is clearly visible the actual results show the defeat of the opposition in the single list variant, and the modified results are shown as having won the vote. In my opinion, this is extreme manipulation. Modification of the actual results to match the statement previously stated. We have had several adventures with polls in Poland’s recent history. But I can’t remember anything like it (or even anything similar). In my opinion, this is probably the highest imaginable level of unreliability in presenting polls
– scored the poll of “GW” political scientist.
READ: A political scientist scores the “GW” survey: This is extreme manipulation and the highest level of unreliability imaginable
The whole operation thus considerably weakened the forces on the opposition side that wanted a single list, and thus part of the media establishment and – of course – Tusk. The latter is left with ever stronger threats, which of course further strengthen the resistance of the leaders of the smaller parties to the joint list. If he treats them this way today, how will he treat them if they agree to fold their own banners?
READ: Tusk swears, “We’ll have one list.” It scares off unconvinced colleagues. “They will get a hard whip from the voters”
Wyborcza’s poll brought a major breakthrough. It is almost certain that the opposition will participate in the elections in at least four blocs. Own lists will be submitted by: Koalicja Obywatelska, PSL together with Hołownia and Links. And of course the Confederacy. This does not resolve the issue of the future government and puts Tusk in a difficult situation. Smaller formations will – whether they like it or not – have to fight hard for support, also in a certain confrontation with the PO. Even if it becomes a limited and suppressed confrontation, it will certainly resonate. The confrontation between PiS and anti-PiS will not be the only axis of this campaign.
Emma Matthew is a political analyst for “Social Bites”. With a keen understanding of the inner workings of government and a passion for politics, she provides insightful and informative coverage of the latest political developments.