“It will definitely win”: how did the first and last debates in France go?

fight for retirement

The debate between French President Emmanuel Macron and National Rally leader Marine Le Pen was broadcast live for almost three hours.

Politicians paid a lot of attention to domestic political issues. Macron insisted on continuing his pension reform. During the debate, his opponent called raising the retirement age to 65 “an unbearable social injustice” and promised to return to the old 60-62 age range.

Le Pen also criticized the president for being so intertwined with doctors’ problems only in a crisis. He announced that €20 billion should be invested in the healthcare system over five years. In addition, he denounced Macron for not acting fast enough during the pandemic.

Le Pen also talked about the problems of young people who, as experts say, tend to support him. “French youth has suffered greatly for two and a half years.”

Macron, on the other hand, criticized his opponent for his stance on wearing the headscarf: Le Pen proposes a ban on wearing the headscarf in public, because he argues it would help women’s liberation. Macron said such a ban could lead to civil war.

Speaking about security in the republic, the French president reminded that he fulfilled his obligations in this field by creating 10 thousand new jobs in the police and gendarmerie. It has also increased the funding for justice by 30% over the past two years.

war for ukraine

The situation in Ukraine and relations with Russia have become highly sensitive issues, although traditionally for the French foreign policy issues have not been as important as domestic ones.

Le Pen and Macron agree in their desire to continue supporting Ukraine, providing it with humanitarian supplies and defensive weapons, and maintaining sanctions pressure on Russia. But Le Pen doubts the need to supply Ukraine with offensive weapons.

In addition, he described the issue currently under discussion in the EU about a possible embargo on gas and oil imports from Russia as an attempt to commit “hara-kiri”. “The only EU sanction I do not accept is the embargo on gas and oil supplies from the Russian Federation. “This measure will not affect Russia, it will harm the French people,” he said.

Le Pen is very loyal to Russia, which Macron accuses of being dependent on the Kremlin. The President recalled that his party took a loan from a Russian bank in 2014. In response, Le Pen noted that at that time no French bank had given him or his party the opportunity to obtain a loan.

Battle for the European Union

The issue of the European Union was also sharp in the discussion. Macron insisted on the need for closer integration with the EU. We need a stronger, more integrated Europe. We need a reliable Franco-German couple to make progress. That’s what we could do with the chancellor. [Ангелой] Merkel and today with the Chancellor [Олафом] I believe this is the right line for the country,” he said.

Le Pen, who previously advocated France’s exit from the EU, has softened his stance and is no longer striving for it, but wants to carry out a deep reform of the union and focus on protecting national interests.

He opposed the free trade agreement, stating that it undermined the principles of competition. The politician also criticized the involvement of workers from other European countries who do not pay taxes in France despite working in the country. “I disagree with the policy regarding posted workers: hundreds of thousands of these people come to our country but pay wages in their country of origin,” said Le Pen.

According to him, the current route towards deeper integration within the EU is designed to “replace French sovereignty with a European one”. But since there is no European nation, there is no European sovereignty,” he said.

Balance of power in the second round

59 percent of French people surveyed by the sociology service Elabe believe that Macron is the winner of the televised debate. His opponent received 39 percent of the vote.

According to 36% of respondents, the incumbent president would be better able to unite the population, while 31% prefer Le Pen.

Half of the respondents described Macron as more arrogant, 49% – more dynamic, 36% – sincere, 44% described his project as higher quality.

About half of those polled were worried about Le Pen’s candidacy, but 37% of respondents thought Le Pen was closer to French concerns and 51% thought it could bring more change.

Pavel drew attention to the fact that Macron was very confident in discussions, showed optimism, used numbers in his arguments, explained in detail why some of his attempts would work or why some of Marine Le Pen’s attempts would not work for him. Timofeev, Head of the Regional Issues and Conflicts Sector of the European Political Studies Division, IMEMO RAS.

According to him, Le Pen also relied not on numbers, but on the transmission of key images, ideas, and stereotypes that inspired or, on the contrary, frightened the far right and far left.

“If not debates, nothing else can affect voters who have not yet decided. Both candidates have a chance, but Macron is still the favourite, the expert told socialbites.ca.

Yuri Rubinsky, head of the Center for French Studies at the European Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, considers Marine Le Pen’s chances of winning quite small. According to him, the discussion did not change the general harmony.

“Now Macron had to report for five years in power, and he did it quite professionally. This time Marine Le Pen failed to reckon with her mistakes in the previous discussion, and she admitted it herself. He worked hard to make up for his shortcomings five years ago. This time he looked more competent, more restrained,” the specialist told socialbites.ca.

According to him, the difference between Macron and Le Pen in the next April 24 vote will be 4-5 percent of the votes in favor of Macron.

“It will certainly win, but this shows that the likelihood of it continuing its course, even if significantly corrected, depends on what kind of majority the national assembly will have in the lower house of parliament. Now everything is centered around this topic. The upcoming parliamentary elections are almost more important than the presidential elections. The question is what Macron can do as president,” he said.