“Now the Japanese see not only China but also Russia as a threat”

The United States, Great Britain and Australia informally approached the Japanese government with a proposal to join the AUKUS military-political bloc, the Sankei newspaper reported.

The newspaper’s sources claim that the country’s political elite is divided. The first actively supports the country’s entry into the aforementioned union, focusing on new opportunities to contain China. The second group advocates cooperation in certain sectors with the USA, Australia and the UK in both bilateral and multilateral formats, but without full participation in AUKUS.

At the same time, Hirokazu Matsuno, Secretary General of the Cabinet of Ministers of Japan, is convinced that no application has been made to Tokyo with such a proposal.

Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Kremlin is monitoring the development of AUKUS “very closely”.

“However, such alliances are not inclusive. And judging by the goals and objectives, they lead to the formation of narrow fights, which are unlikely to become a broad platform for ensuring the stability and security of such a large region, ”said the author.

Why do AUKUS countries need cooperation with Japan?

According to Sankei, the main purpose of the US, UK and Australia’s call for Japan to join AUKUS is to leverage Tokyo’s technological potential to develop hypersonic weapons and strengthen electronic warfare capabilities. In addition, the alliance countries are interested in attracting the potential of the island state in other areas: from work on cybernetics and artificial intelligence to quantum technologies.

By the way, the version about hypersound sounds very convincing, because only on April 5 the AUKUS countries agreed on cooperation in its development.

“We are determined to initiate new tripartite cooperation on hypersonic weapons and defenses and electronic warfare,” the White House said in a statement.

And these developments were immediately welcomed by Tokyo – Matsuno called the “timely response” to the Russian military operation in Ukraine.

However, according to most experts, China was not happy with the rise that AUKUS was directed to express in moderation. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said the alliance’s plans to jointly develop hypersonic weapons “undermine peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.”

“This not only increases the risk of nonproliferation, jeopardizes the international nonproliferation regime, but also fuels the arms race,” he said.

Meanwhile, in March, the United States secretly tested the Hypersonic Air Breathing Weapon Concept (HAWC) hypersonic missile from a B-52 bomber. According to CNN, the rocket flew approximately 482 km at Mach 5.

Vasily Kashin, Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, briefed socialbites.ca about Japan’s program for creating hypersonic weapons.

“It is divided into two areas: the creation of a ballistic missile with a hypersonic maneuvering warhead and the creation of a hypersonic cruise missile with a ramjet engine. They planned to start testing the first in the mid-2020s and the second – in the late 2020s – early 2030s.

In this respect, Japan is more important than the UK, which does not have serious potential in hypersonic (and can not even make ballistic missiles), and Australia, which is a vacant place in this field.

In general, Tokyo is a good industrial base, with significant potential for the development of missile weapons, therefore it will be a very important partner for AUKUS countries, ”says the analyst.

Evaluating the threat to Russia from the advent of Japan’s war-ready hypersonic weapons, Kashin admits this is “not very pleasant”, at least. But given the prospect of deploying American same-class systems in the region, this is not a radical deterioration in our positions,” he adds.

why tokyo

In a comment to socialbites.ca, MGIMO Associate Professor Vladimir Nelidov was among the main reasons why Japan accepted a possible offer to join the AUKUS threat from China and more recently Russia.

“After the start of the military operation against Ukraine, the threat from Russia to the whole world order has increased in Japan’s eyes. It is clear that a radical transition has taken place.

Previously, Japan looked at Russia with caution due to the formation of the Sino-Russian alliance, but did not give up on attempts to interact. And now that our relations have collapsed, things can no longer be the same.”

According to Nelidov, under the new conditions, all processes of defense cooperation between the collective Western countries accelerated sharply. This also applies to Japan’s partnership with its allies in the Asia-Pacific region. However, the expert thinks that Tokyo will still not fully participate in AUKUS.

“I think various forms of Japan’s interaction with AUKUS are possible, for example in relation to military technologies. “Another thing is that the probability of this alliance being an exact replica of NATO in the Asia-Pacific region is still low,” he said.

For example, this is feared in China. The same Zhao Lijian described AUKUS as an attempt to create an “Asia-Pacific version of NATO” that serves US hegemony and carries the Cold War mentality. However, the analogies with NATO are at least not entirely correct – for example, AUKUS does not provide mutual mandatory assistance in the event of an attack by a third country on one of its participants.

Expert Nelidov believes that the security architecture in the Asia-Pacific region will most likely not consist of a single structure, but rather different structures, each with a specific purpose.

“And the more a country is involved in these formats, the closer it will be to the United States. Japan already has close bilateral cooperation with the USA, Australia, QUAD format (rectangular India-Australia-US-Japan Security Dialogue). It looks like AUKUS will become another form of interaction in the security space,” said an analyst from MGIMO.

Vasily Kashin confirms that AUKUS has no specific obligations, but believes that Japan may be interested in joining it from a purely military-industrial point of view.

“In that respect, Tokyo will win. After all, there is already a model in which Japan fully participates as a major partner in some US programs for creating missile defense systems. For example, the huge role of the Japanese in the creation of the Standard SM-3 Block IIA anti-aircraft guided missile.

Therefore, joining AUKUS is a very good option for the Japanese defense industry. This is a way to share R&D costs and achieve a more positive outcome. The Japanese will undertake such projects, this will significantly contribute to the growth of their military capabilities. And the participation of Japan will help the Americans to develop new types of weapons, reduce costs and solve their own technical problems, ”the statement said.