Who can lose in the 28M municipal elections if everyone wins?

The parties and teams that design the campaigns know that the person, the name is key in municipal searches. In that sense, the popular ones have taken the lead quantitatively and are actually expecting all the banners to go down before February, that is, in less than a week. “any other small municipality”.

If we compare the calendar with socialist and coalition forces, we quickly see the differences. Compromís aims to keep or slightly increase the number of locations where they nominated (74). Eyeing on February 11, the orange formation is keeping the important Plaza de Elche open as well as the Pego. On the rest of the map, the novelty of the ordinance is that it allows for concourses to be added where the list does not exist in 2019.

PSOE, on the other hand, is following its own roadmap. It has solved all major towns except Torrevieja, where the problem is on the roof of Ximo Puig and his team. The headache is significant because the current mayor, the popular Eduardo Dolón, is a name everyone knows. Torrevejense square is the key point in Vega Baja, an area where many efforts are devoted to adding. Carolina Gracia’s (Orihuela) trump card may fall short and more transfer cut discussions could be used as a backdrop. All nominations must be finalized on February 28 and the county government thinks that the hours are set according to a schedule set by Ferraz. For some, this date may be too late to fight for certain mayors like La Nucía or Teulada-Moraira as they have broken the candidate’s maximum notoriety. It should be noted that mayors from the PSOE in Madrid were given the opportunity to serve a third term. We all have situations like Elche, Elda, Dénia or Alcoybut in this case Toni would be fourth for Frances.

The ciudadanos are calendarless and against the clock, but point to the “illusion” of re-establishment from the party and bet on the strategy of guarantee lists or profiles. At a time when the polls thought they were missing from the electoral map, they realize that to survive the tsunami they will have to choose their battle and retain names like Rosa García or the mayors of Santiago Román, Benejúzar and Sant Joan d’Alacant. suffered.

Absolute majority?

In the 2019 elections, the PP won an absolute majority of 37; PSOE, 34; Compromise, 12; and Cs and EUPV, one each. The rest were victories in which alliances fought at the extremes. Alicante Provincial Assembly, currently led by PPCV president and Generalitat candidate Carlos Mazón, was the best example. And the centre-right power has lost in nearly every major town in the state, despite retaining municipal councils such as Alicante and Orihuela (until a no-confidence motion in April 2022). The deal between Mazón and Toni Cantó gave the popular leader the best platform to take the reins of the party and build a well-oiled team, at least in Alicante.

Therefore, the first strategy Improve the ground in cities like Sant Vicente del Raspeig, Elda or Dénia and win in Elche and expanding the advantage in Villena. The PP’s effort to sign contracts with experienced and experienced candidates is more important than it seems because the drag effect for autonomous communities is very much on the cards. In addition, the area in the district presidencies defines not only the municipal power, but also the provincial power. It is worth remembering the last count, which tipped the balance in Alto Vinalopó in favor of the Socialists by only 30 votes.

On the other hand, 2019 results Gained more absolute majority than in 2015, because the proliferation of independent parties in the previous elections was also reflected in the plenary sessions. Looking at 28 May, experts and surveys agree that options are running low as Citizens have little choice, and it is unknown how the different intersections will reach 141 municipalities. Logically, this does not mean that the game is only for two and they both know it.

The absolute majority has become one of the most beloved desires, although its price has been the most expensive in the last 12 years. Besides the obvious reasons, every area needs addition. Benidorm is the best example of this bet and Toni Pérez, current provincial head of the PP, he can confirm it after a period in the face of weak opposition.

The teams of the consulted parties are concerned about abstention and other issues such as the positive or negative impact that national politics may have on the region of these major cities. The popular and socialists did not hide this fact, and the former included Pedro Sánchez in their election campaign, while the latter distanced themselves on issues such as water or investment in the state of Alicante.

Under 20,000 or 10,000 people, concerns differ. First, there is the competition to reach all populations. It’s a fact of having options, because if the results are tight, no one wants to lose a legislator to enter the Provincial Palace race.

Commitment, Citizens and Unites Podem They realize that they cannot reach this level, so the board is viewed with different eyes.. They play to be decisive, and they know it, judging by the fact that in 2019 their support changed the sign of about a dozen city councils, where the PP was the party with the most votes and was left to the mayor. There are cities like Granja de Rocamora, Villena or other cities that have been making the headlines lately.

abstention

Whatever their size, they have all marked in their strategy the necessary mobilization of the electorate. Some make no secret of their concern about the vote, especially of young people.. Polls detect this, but no one knows very well how to catch it, so they decide to go to a polling station on May 28 and cast their votes.

The maxim that abstention benefits the right has met with a handicap, and that is that we are not dealing with an infallible maxim. In fact, PP’s goal of voting C’s goes in parallel with his own and, if interested, Vox’s mobilization.

The Left will have to push the administration, and internally, it’s more about Compromise, because primaries are thought to produce unnecessary wear and tear.

Finally, there is the so-called quick vote. For sociologists, this gap is widening. Deciding to vote at the last minute causes the campaign itself to rush, last 15 days, be daily test and the second is played.

when you ask Three names emerge from the highlights: Alicante, Elche and Calp. First, he knows the vote-gathering ability of former socialist councilor Ana Barceló; secondly, because the PP’s polls brought him victory, and thirdly, because the ex-president of the Provincial Assembly like César Sánchez would have to convince them again. own it and prevent the emergence of a disappointed new party.