The conflict involving the United States and the United Kingdom in Yemen has stretched beyond a week, yet signs of improvement in the Red Sea remain elusive. Instead, missile strikes have heightened tensions with the Houthis, and attacks on shipping persist, pushing the situation toward a protracted stalemate.
The military operation against the Houthis, publicly labeled the Guardian of Prosperity, appeared questionable from the outset. The United States announced the initiative on December 18, aiming to deploy a fleet to safeguard the maritime route through the Suez Canal from rebel disruptions. In addition to the United States, nearly twenty other nations took part in the operation.
It soon became apparent that only a fraction of the nominal coalition would provide real assistance. A sizable portion of the coalition dispatched small contingents, ranging from two to eleven personnel. Only Britain, Greece, and Denmark contributed warships in a meaningful way.
Moreover, the limited intervention by the United States and its allies did not deter the Houthis. The rebels continued to strike ships, capturing missiles and drones and damaging vessels. Although American reports claim that about a quarter of the Houthis’ missile capacity has been neutralized, scarce visible results emerged from strikes on targets inside Yemen. In this context, the White House’s move to reclassify the rebels as terrorists and describe the measure as a flexible form of economic pressure was met with strong doubt.
From an economic standpoint, the operation did not unfold in the allies’ favor. Expensive, almost bespoke weapons had to be supplanted by cheaper, plentiful missiles and drones. France conducted independent operations in the Red Sea, shooting down UAVs valued at around $20,000 with missiles priced at roughly $1 million. The British faced similar challenges, and the lone destroyer in the Red Sea, HMS Diamond, faced dwindling ammunition and eventually withdrew from the mission. There are indications that it may be pressed on by supply issues and weariness of the fleet.
Reinforcements may soon arrive for the Americans and the British. The European Union is contemplating dispatching its own naval mission to the Red Sea. New players could help preserve trade for a time, yet fundamental changes remain unlikely without a different strategic approach.
In principle, a large-scale invasion of Yemen could be seen as a path to defeating the Houthis, but such a move would demand substantial resources, regional cooperation, and strong political will.
The allies lack ample resources. American policymakers face a divide across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, complicating a concentrated effort. Sailors have limited the rotation of ships within the Middle East fleet for months due to personnel shortages, signaling the scale of capability constraints. Britain faces even greater strain; the Royal Navy has shrunk in recent years, limiting its ability to project power from the Red Sea, with current operations largely conducted from a Cyprus air base.
Regional partners are not easily relied upon either. The Saudi-UAE coalition, active on Yemen’s ground, could be a crucial asset for the United States if engaged more fully. Yet Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have avoided direct confrontation to maintain public perception amid regional sensitivities regarding Israel. Egypt, as the custodian of the Suez Canal, also has a strong stake in ensuring safe navigation, though it has shown cautious behavior as well.
Without greater resources and key allies, the prospect of escalating tensions in the Red Sea seems dim. This raises the question of whether military intervention in Yemen will continue to be sidelined.
Are other options possible? A potential path would involve a clear strategic rationale from Washington, explaining why collaboration with allies could shift toward different regional alignments, including considerations regarding Iran as a proxy facilitator. Such messaging would aim to avoid erosion of credibility and prevent domestic political consequences ahead of elections.
There is also the possibility of applying pressure to other fronts. Some see value in pressuring Israel to moderate actions in Gaza, a move that could influence broader regional calculations. However, the Netanyahu government has indicated a preference for reducing intensity rather than ending operations, and the United States has deep ties with allied partners that complicate shifts in policy.
What lessons emerge from this sequence? The Houthis’ resistance underscores a broader trend: the role of the United States as a global stabilizer is under increasing scrutiny. In past episodes, a single intervention could signal restraint; today, threats often fail to compel action, and credibility may be frayed. The post-American order appears to be evolving, with allies and adversaries recalibrating expectations in light of shifting power dynamics.
Note: The perspectives above reflect interpretive analysis and are not an official position of any specific editorial board.