The July general elections laid bare a decisive factor shaping the final balance: every voter did more than pick the ideological option closest to their own beliefs. There is a clear drift away from VOX, a rejection of the far right, and a push against the normalization of extremists by the more centrist right. Feijóo openly acknowledges his alignment with Vox and signals a willingness to compromise with them, while other parties broadly reject the notion that VOX could participate in the nation’s government.
The evidence indicates that Sánchez has a real chance to win enough support for the investments ahead. It would be difficult for Junts to block this aid since Catalan voters would interpret such a move as a betrayal, risking a further setback for Catalan nationalism, which already faced a heavy blow and learned what might happen if it pursued a dramatic shift. In any case, it seems plausible that if such a scenario occurred, the progressive majority would improve and broaden its gains.
Thus, if this forecast comes true, the immediate political priority will be to normalize the judiciary. The judicial council has operated since December 2018, and with the party in power, it will likely remain volatile for five years more due to the influence of the People’s Party. Rajoy, who previously held a strong position in that body after winning an absolute majority, resisted the new reality. The PP’s refusal to abide by constitutional provisions is serious and politically damaging to the institution that has led a quiet, persistent challenge against the constitutional system, mirrored in other European examples. EU Justice Commissioner Reynders reiterated Europe’s concern about the breach last week, underscoring the international dimension of this issue. (citation: Reuters)
As is known, Sánchez’s governing coalition reviewed the 2020 Judicial Service Act reform, which lowered the parliamentary majorities required for the chambers to approve the appointment of 12 councilors from the judiciary by an absolute majority. Three-fifths of Congress and the Senate are now the thresholds. Sánchez withdrew his proposal after Europe warned that the reform might violate anti-corruption standards set by the Council of Europe’s Greco, noting that the Council of Europe is not the same as Unity. Europe pressured the PP to accept the renewal of the CGPJ before a Brussels-backed reform could be enacted, so that judges could have a more direct say in selecting their representatives on the Council. The renewal of the judiciary is now urgent; the nuances will be explored later. Since these reforms are unlikely to restore the faith eroded by politicized judges, revolving doors must be closed so that those who left the judiciary to enter politics do not return. The General Council should enforce rigorous ethical and professional oversight of the judicial branch. (citation: Reuters)
The judiciary reform should also push for decentralization. Including minority representation on the CGPJ is desirable, and this possibility should be part of the agreement that the government entities PSOE and Sumar must reach with those minorities to support the next legislature. The July 23 vote sent a strong message: the two major state parties cannot legitimately marginalize minorities who represent sensitivities that must be integrated into governing institutions. (citation: Reuters)
It is hard to reconcile the heat of this August with urgent political work, but there is no alternative. Citizens do not expect it—nor should they—and the time to act is now.