In normal times, political cycles often follow the wear and tear of competing ideas. When the economic and social processes slide from one crisis to the next, the political landscape is strongly shaped by those crises.
The first decades of the millennium have seen a sequence: a major financial and monetary crisis—the first truly global one since the 2008 upheaval—an unprecedented pandemic in 2020, and a troubling war in Europe. This unpredictable sequence helped drive early general elections in 2011, during which citizens attempted to manage the shock therapies imposed by the European Union and international institutions, a moment that opened a path toward a phase marked by censorship on June 1, 2018. Mariano Rajoy, a figure tied to a period of widespread corruption and austerity, faced intense scrutiny as policies were pushed to their limits.
Between 2008 and 2020, the bipartisan parliamentary model that emerged after the end of the centrist UCD experiment in 1982 was destabilized. As the PSOE and the PP weakened, new forces rose: Podemos, a left-wing populist movement, and VOX, a party rooted in post-Francoist sentiment that resurfaced as a force claiming to represent a new generation and ready to address the past; Ciudadanos also appeared as a broad catch-all option. When the PSOE reached La Moncloa, it absorbed much of the centrist energy that had previously formed the core. Ciudadanos ultimately found a political dead end by the second election of 2019.
In this context, the Andalusian elections can be viewed as a signal, suggesting a return of politics to its original channels and a weakened bipartisan system that may or may not rely on technical support. Duverger’s law, a familiar reference for political scientists, holds that majoritarian electoral systems tend to produce a two-party parliament (as seen in the UK or the USA), while proportional systems foster multiparty dynamics (as seen in Italy or Portugal). In this light, the Spanish adaptation of proportionality through the Hondt method can appear to favor larger parties, since greater vote value often translates into a stronger parliamentary outcome.
In Andalusia, voters were wary of manipulation by Vox, a far-right party that played a role in supporting the outgoing government and has shown its influence during the last legislature. Voters also perceived a left-of-center coalition’s confusion, with a mix of cautious supporters and ambitious leaders, and the political frictions among leading figures. The electorate acted with practical restraint: giving the PP enough support to avoid dependence on Vox, while recognizing the challenge posed by a fragmented left. Notably, Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía received almost identical votes to Vox, each securing around fourteen seats. The fragmentation within the left, including the rupture of the UP space, contributed to a challenging negotiation climate that made a united front difficult and halted efforts to cohere around a single regional leader with a strong autonomous plan. Voters expressed their frustration through a reduced number of seats, signaling a demand for clearer, more stable leadership.
The ongoing legal and political pressures, including prior judicial actions related to regional issues, continued to shape the political landscape. The government faced crises on multiple fronts, including public health challenges and international conflict, amid looming concerns about a global economic slowdown. The leadership faced the task of guiding the country through turbulent times, balancing resilience with the pressures of reform and reformist promises. The outlook for the near future would hinge on whether the leadership could restore credibility and deliver on promises, regardless of how individual voters might respond to the evolving political moment.