A nonbinary person (note, not to be confused with gender fluid) rises in Eurovision on a platform where merit is about balance, while Spain hands the televote to Israel amid suspicions of vote-factory interference and a smear machine circling Gaza, producing casualties without end. In this tense moment, Catalonia opened its polls Sunday after a bland campaign, with no amnesty or pardons or those grand existential topics that have long colored Spanish politics, leaving the result awkward to parse 24 hours later. It seems this fluctuating, confusing world is winning. Salvador Illa appears to have the edge, but it does not guarantee governance or the stability that might come with any bid for the Palau.
Everything remains to be seen. Looking from the neighboring Valencian Community, and with regional financing as the major hurdle, the first takeaway is that Illa’s path matters more than Carles Puigdemont or Pere Aragonès and their singular funding proposals and special quotas. That is the basic theory of finance, but the practical question is whether Illa, in a space full of noise, has the nerve to push for a non populist, multilateral route. For Carlos Mazón, the key question is whether there is any willingness to cooperate beyond the urge to erode Pedro Sánchez. It is hard to predict the future, yet the past advises mild optimism. A pragmatic rapprochement between two regions with common interests in this matter would be sensible, given they represent more than twelve million Spaniards, a significant share of the national whole. It would be welcome if the old adage, Vuelva usted mañana, did not apply here. The Valencian Community deserves a new phase with Catalonia, but first comes stable leadership nearby. Otherwise, stalemate on funding would be the default.
Elsewhere, Sánchez projects strength again after a momentary farewell tease. Sunday night carried more joy at Ferraz than in Illa’s expression, which is understandable. Few recall that the Podemos-led bloc helped derail Pere Aragonés’s budget plan and triggered the early election call, tied to a business project that Colau and Valencian journalist Jessica Albiach found hard to swallow. These three groups now must find a way to work together. Illa’s composed demeanor makes sense; maneuvering in coming weeks will resemble a tightrope walk on a Swiss singer’s stage—an act of balance.
That result also acts as a boost for Diana Morant. As long as Sánchez and the PSOE perform well, the minister will face fewer internal tensions and more cohesion. Illa could gift her a greater role in any strategic move toward a new funding arrangement. Time will tell.
Sánchez enters stronger because his stance on Catalonia gains momentum this Sunday, a setback for the separatists. In recent years, quieting separatist momentum and empowering the PSPV have kept the left as the dominant option, even as the right grows in influence without approaching the 40 seats once held by Ciudadanos and the PP in 2017. Amnesty carries weight, but it does not erase the shadow of the pro-independence moment. Puigdemont’s faction remains the most radical and non pragmatic choice in this camp, poised to be the second force in the Parliament and a more active player in Congress.
Sánchez’s strong showing on the day does not erase the PP’s ascent, though the party began from a relatively low point. In this spring, the focus has been on countering Vox and the ultra-right, a political calculation that keeps Feijóo ahead, even if his rhetoric diverges from that of the moderate Feijóo of the past.
The major duel between the two large blocs remains open for the European elections. The vote on June 9 will heighten attention starting this Sunday. The mood and the months ahead will hinge on how the campaign closes. It will be a crucial moment to understand if Sánchez can present a steady, calm front or if Feijóo can emerge damaged. Everything remains to be decided.