Vitaly Ryumshin Macron dismissed 07:59

The Olympics remained, but the circus remained – this phrase perfectly describes the political situation in France.

The country continues to grapple with the consequences of Emmanuel Macron’s “wonderful” decision to call early parliamentary elections. Since July 7, the left, far right and centrists, who have divided the parliament equally, have been fighting over the choice of prime minister. The French president himself is causing confusion. He is desperately trying to maintain control over the government, but his political maneuverings so far have only exacerbated the situation.

The matter has now reached the point of impeachment threats and there is no “light at the end of the tunnel” yet.

Tensions began to rise after the second round of parliamentary elections, which the left-wing New Popular Front coalition narrowly won. After a two-week delay and two failed internal coalition votes, MP Lucie Caste was proposed to become prime minister.

But Macron did not accept his candidacy. At first, the French President proposed to postpone the change of government until after the Olympic Games. When the Olympic Truce ended and the French political forces resumed negotiations, he rejected Caste once again, this time with the excuse that his government would not last long.

After the second rejection, the left was furious. The coalition leader, the far-left party France Unconquered, called on Macron to stop the bid and appoint a prime minister, or face impeachment. On August 31, the far-left formally launched the procedure to impeach the president and is now seeking support from other political forces.

The rules for the removal of the French president are set out in Article 68 of the country’s constitution. Accordingly, the head of state can be removed from office if he does not fulfill his duties. Unconquered France members believe that the refusal to appoint a prime minister to the winning group, due to Macron’s refusal to recognize the election results, fits this formulation.

It sounds reasonable, but it won’t do any good.

France is a country with a strong presidential mandate, and to impeach the president, the parliament would have to literally go through nine circles of hell.

First, the initiative group of deputies must propose impeachment. It is then evaluated by the bureau and the National Assembly legal commission. If they continue to press charges, the National Assembly must pass a decision on impeachment with ⅔ votes. The Senate then goes through the same procedure (evaluation and voting in two commissions). Then both houses of parliament form a “supreme court”, which investigates the case and decides whether the president should be impeached. Finally, the National Assembly and the Senate come together to vote again, and if ⅔ of the deputies support the proposal again, the French President is impeached.

Simply put, Macron’s removal from office requires the consensus of the entire parliament.

The National Assembly is in political turmoil, and the Senate is controlled by moderate forces loyal to the French President – ​​it is impossible to reach an agreement under these conditions. Moreover, even in the New Popular Front, many are cool to the idea of ​​Macron’s resignation. So there is a high probability that the “Unconquered France” initiative will not even pass the National Assembly bureau.

A more realistic alternative: Macron will appoint a prime minister he personally likes. Here, the political system gives full power to the French president. Only he can appoint the head of government, and this candidate does not have to be a member of the largest faction or even a member of parliament.

There are currently two people on Macron’s shortlist. First: Bernard Cazeneuve, a socialist who was already prime minister under François Hollande. Second: Xavier Bertrand, a representative of the moderate right-wing Republicans party. He held various ministerial posts under Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy and currently heads the regional council of Hauts-de-France.

At the time of writing, Macron was open to Bertrand, despite having almost decided to appoint Cazeneuve the day before. His hesitation is understandable: whoever Macron chooses, the political crisis will not end there, as MPs could at any time topple the prime minister with a vote of no confidence. Execneuve is unpopular on the left, Bertrand’s potential government is threatened by the far-right National Rally, and neither group can stand Macron personally, so they are unlikely to let him govern peacefully.

Previously, conflicts were resolved in a simple way: the French president agreed with the group that had the majority in the National Assembly to allow the government to work. But now, for the first time in history, the lower house of the French parliament is divided by three forces that have no clear advantage over their opponents and are not inclined to unite in a coalition. No one knows how to break the deadlock. French law also does not provide an answer, because it is not designed for such situations.

Macron’s only chance of ending the strife is to split the New Popular Front and rally the moderate left and right around his centrist coalition. But that would require a lot of evasion. And political chaos is guaranteed in France for the foreseeable future.

The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the editors’ position.