Vitaly Ryumshin Between Moscow and Kiev: Whose side is Alexander Lukashenko on? 08/12/2024, 08:03

The offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region made many remember the almost forgotten but still influential participant of the Ukrainian conflict – Alexander Lukashenko.

It would seem that where is Kursk and where is Lukashenko? As if there is no direct connection between the tragic events in the border region of the Russian Federation and the Belarusian President. But attentive military bloggers and political analysts found it.

In mid-July, Lukashenko announced that Belarus would withdraw its troops from the Ukrainian border. The Ukrainian Armed Forces also withdrew, and a month later the troops previously stationed on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border were found in the Kursk region. Lukashenko did not react to the fierce fighting in the Russian border region in the first few days. Given this, some commentators put two and two together and claimed that Alexander Grigorievich was quietly working for the enemy.

Lukashenko woke up after a Ukrainian drone flew over Belarus on August 10. At the time of writing, Minsk had already condemned the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region, withdrawn its troops once again to the border and threatened to expel the Ukrainian embassy if it did not impress official Kiev. Thus, in just four days, Lukashenko transformed from an exemplary ally to an exiled Cossack, and then did the opposite.

But the residue remained. After all, it is now completely unclear in whose interests Alexander Lukashenko works. Who is his friend, who is his enemy?

Before I continue, I will make a reservation. In international politics, “friend” and “enemy” are relative concepts. A state may have many interests in various areas. It is possible that these interests completely overlap or completely disagree with the interests of another country. Or a situation may arise where two countries cooperate and compete simultaneously. Moreover, periods of hostility and friendship can change very quickly in parallel with the changing interests.

So Lukashenko understood this axiom well. In the international arena, the Belarusian president has always behaved like this: as long as he was allowed, he shamelessly usurped the benefits wherever possible. When the situation changed and the previous sources of profit dried up, he wisely changed his position to continue doing the same thing elsewhere.

With this in mind, we can safely say that Lukashenko is definitely not a friend of the current leadership of Ukraine. Previously, relations between Minsk and Kiev were quite good. Belarus acted as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and made money from it by selling Russian goods to Ukraine and Ukrainian goods to Russia.

Everything changed in 2020, when the government of Vladimir Zelensky refused to recognize Lukashenko’s re-election. After that, Minsk and Kiev cut off communication at the highest level. And after the start of the SVO, hopes for normalization finally collapsed. Perhaps now Zelensky wants to get closer to Lukashenko in order to anger Moscow. But he cannot offer the Belarusian leader anything that would offset the benefits of cooperation with Russia.

In addition, the complaints of military bloggers are, in my opinion, somewhat exaggerated. In July, Belarus temporarily reinforced the border with additional troops due to the downing of a reconnaissance drone belonging to the Armed Forces of Ukraine over its territory. These are exactly the people Lukashenko is talking about when he talks about de-escalation. Otherwise, Belarus, as before, passively creates tensions on the border. Here, Minsk’s position has not fundamentally changed.

Just as Lukashenko’s position on the general role of Belarus in the Northern Military District has not changed. The Belarusian President immediately made it clear that he would not allow his country to be drawn into hostilities in Ukraine. So it is clear that he will not throw himself into this violation for the sake of Russia.

Moscow appears content with Minsk’s current role. Otherwise, it would not trade passive participation in the conflict for comprehensive security guarantees backed by nuclear weapons. Lukashenko is also content in principle, and is therefore more willing than ever to follow the lead of Russian politics.

Of course, against this backdrop, there is talk from time to time that Belarus will open a second front. But this has not happened before and is unlikely to happen in the future. After all, Lukashenko’s ostentatious gestures of friendship often conceal deceptive political maneuvers. Many in Russia are uncomfortable with the Belarusian president’s insincerity. But it has never been otherwise.

Back to the main question: Who is Lukashenko’s friend after all? The answer to that is actually simple. Alexander Lukashenko is a friend of Alexander Lukashenko and Belarus. He is definitely not a real friend for other international players, including Russia. Maximum travel companion.

The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the editors’ position.