The USA and the UK have been attacking Yemen for more than a week. However, so far there is no sign of an improvement in the situation in the Red Sea. On the contrary, the missile attacks further angered the Houthis. Attacks on shipping continue and the situation is quickly reaching a stalemate.
The military operation against the Houthis, loudly dubbed the “Guardian of Prosperity,” seemed like a bad idea from the very beginning. The US announced this on December 18. The goal was simple: send a fleet to protect the maritime trade route through the Suez Canal from rebel attacks. In addition to the USA, nearly 20 other countries participated in the operation.
It quickly became clear that only a few of the 20 nominal members of the international coalition would actually help the United States. Many of them sent ridiculously large military units into the area, ranging from 2 to 11 men. Only Britain, Greece and Denmark sent warships.
Moreover, the limited intervention of the USA and its allies did not affect the Houthis at all. The rebels continued to attack ships, although they captured missiles and drones and destroyed the boats. Although the Americans report that 25 percent of the Houthis’ missile potential has been destroyed, there is no visible result from the attacks against targets in Yemen. Against this background, the White House’s decision to return the rebels to the list of terrorists and call it “a flexible form of economic pressure” looked completely ridiculous.
Moreover, from a purely economic perspective, the operation is definitely not developing in favor of the allies. They have to replace expensive, almost custom-made weapons with cheap, abundant missiles and drones. The French, operating independently of the American coalition in the Red Sea, are shooting down UAVs worth $20,000 with missiles worth $1 million, the British are doing the same, and their only destroyer in the Red Sea, HMS Diamond, will also be hit soon. He ran out of ammunition and had to leave the mission.
Reinforcements may soon approach the Americans and British. The EU is currently discussing sending its own naval mission to the Red Sea. The new powers will undoubtedly help preserve trade for some time to come. But the situation will not change radically; This requires a different approach.
In principle, the solution is clear: a large-scale invasion of Yemen is needed to defeat the Houthis. However, this requires enormous resources, support from regional allies and political will.
The allies have very few resources. Because Americans are divided between Europe, Asia and the Middle East, they cannot concentrate their military power in one place. The United States has not been able to rotate ships in the Middle East group for several months due to a shortage of sailors – this is already a serious indicator of how limited its capabilities are. Britain’s situation is even worse; In recent years, the Royal Navy has become so small that London has not been able to send even a single aircraft carrier to the Red Sea. The British are now attacking Yemen from the air base in Cyprus.
You can’t rely on regional partners either. Joining the coalition of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which are active participants in Yemen’s civil war, maintain troops there, and support anti-Houthi forces, would greatly benefit the United States. However, despite all the persuasion efforts of the USA, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi avoid conflict for fear of being seen as friends of Israel in the eyes of the Arab streets. Egypt is doing the same, but as owner of the Suez Canal, it must be extremely interested in resuming safe navigation.
Without resources and key allies, Washington lacks the political will to escalate tensions in the Red Sea. This means that the option of military intervention in Yemen may be put aside.
Is there any alternative? Americans can go. True, before that, Joe Biden would be well-advised to come up with a convincing explanation for why the world’s first military has abandoned its allies and turned to Iran’s proxy. (A group that Tehran uses to protect its interests. – socialbites.ca) (Not even by Iran itself). Otherwise, Afghan returns are guaranteed, which will greatly damage the US President’s reputation, and the domestic opposition will have a reason to eat him alive. And these elections are less than a year away.
It is still possible to force Israel to stop the operation in the Gaza Strip demanded by the Houthis. True, the government of Benjamin Netanyahu is ready only to reduce the intensity of hostilities. It seems that he has no intention of leaving the region completely. And the US President is too committed to the pro-Israel lobby to radically increase the pressure on his partners.
What conclusion can be drawn from this? The story of the Houthis shows that the role of the “world gendarmerie” for the United States is getting worse. Previously, Washington needed only a single intervention to appease the recalcitrant. Now, even when he actually comes into conflict, his threats are ignored. And after an operation similar to the one carried out in the Red Sea, America’s opinion will be even less guided. You see, this is how the post-American world order will come.
The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the position of the editors.