A member of parliament with a rather serious face recently said that Russia’s population should double to 290 million within 50 years, and he is said to even have a plan for how it could be multiplied in this way. True, the stated measures look rather dull against the background of such a grandiose task outlined: banning or strictly limiting abortion, dealing with maternity capital and divorces, providing social benefits, building nurseries and kindergartens. And some other little things.
Sometimes one is surprised, to put it politely, by the sense of animal solemnity with which exotic things are presented.
After all, in order for the population of Russia to suddenly start sharply and double (unless, of course, you import about 150 million from abroad, about which below), every Russian woman needs to start giving. Four children were born per family in exactly 9 months, and then such “fruit-bearing” would not stop for another half century. In principle, it is probably possible to organize special incubators in which all women of childbearing age would be subjected to forced “insemination”. But for some reason, this MP did not share his thoughts on this issue out loud.
Seriously, the situation with the birth rate in the country is really sad, but this is not a reason to engage in nonsense on this topic when for some reason we are talking about the president in vain. Considering that the problem of decreasing birth rates as wealth and education increases has not been solved anywhere in the world. The population as a whole is aging, and in developed countries it is aging even faster. After all, planet Earth has the right to organize the population of individuals living on it in such a way that they do not suffer from overload. For example, fly to Mars and multiply there as much as you want.
Okay, now the real numbers. Unfortunately, today even the influx of immigration does not prevent the natural decline of the Russian population. Last year, this number reached almost 600 thousand people. A year ago – 1,042 million, this shows the real impact of covid, not what we were told.
In this context, the number of women of reproductive age is gradually decreasing. Last year it was about 34 million, by January 2031 it will drop to 32.6 million The birth rate is now about 1.5 (which brings us some joy, although in Ukraine it is still 0.7-0.9), so it is not even simple Population reproduction, you need at least 2 for this. What methods can be used to ensure that every woman starts bearing four children instead of “one and a half children” in order to double the population?
There is no such method, it must be accepted. Demography is a long-term game; Everything can be calculated decades in advance, but nothing can be changed dramatically. And you can calculate it wrong. Let’s say that in this century, China will experience the most serious – if not catastrophic – consequences of the “one family, one child” policy, which Mao Zedong completely abandoned only during the Xi Jinping era. The country’s population is rapidly aging, the workforce is declining, and the number of retirees is increasing. The population, which reached a peak of about one and a half billion, will begin to decline. By the end of the century, this number may drop to 800 million people. And if current trends continue, it will become equal to the population of the United States.
In this sense, China is not a young growing dragon, but an aging dragon, and this factor may become the main factor for it in the 21st century. By the way, this could act as a deterrent to hypothetical territorial expansion: according to historical experience, these are mostly the majority of “young” countries with rapidly growing young populations.
Demographic forecasts for Russia remain disappointing. Population decline until 2100 is included in all models without exception. According to UN estimates, Russia’s population will drop to 112 million people by 2100 (20th place in the world; for comparison, in 1950, Russia without the USSR was in fourth place). According to the most optimistic scenario (from the AG Vishnevsky Institute of Demography of the National Research University Higher School of Economics), the number of Russians will not fall below 137 million by the end of the century. But there are very sad predictions. – With the figure of 106 million… In any case, the birth rate will not increase in the next half century, it will either decrease to 1.1-1.3 or remain constant at 1.5.
As for immigration as a factor compensating for natural decline, it will likely weaken as the birth rate declines in existing donor countries (including due to increased prosperity of the local population). Already in the last year and a half, Russia has been faced with the fact that the migration flow has sharply decreased against the background of the Great Patriotic War and now the devaluation of the ruble.
Since the demand for low-skilled labor continues in other parts of the world (for example, in the developed countries of Europe), labor migrant workers will go there. Although some migration flow to Russia will continue for a long time: according to Rosstat forecasts, migration growth in 2023-2036 will fluctuate around 250-260 thousand per year, which, unfortunately, will not cover the natural population decline (according to the same study) Rosstat estimates 374 thousand per year -It is estimated that there are 583 thousand people.
There is definitely a need for a policy to promote fertility. New incentive measures are also needed, from increasing the size of maternity capital (which provides a certain effect) to creating favorable conditions and benefits for families in many areas. The most important of these is the creation of an image of the future that will encourage people to have families and children. Likewise, it makes sense to encourage “immigration for the benefit of the country”. However, these measures should not expect a miracle; these can only slow down population decline.
Of course, if we indulge in the wildest and politically irresponsible fantasies that are so fashionable among some politicians, then we can recommend the authorities to solve the demography problem through territorial expansion. Although history does not know successful cases when a country with a decreasing population and, of course, general aging could do this. At the same time, at least – in the order of absurdity – the “complete annexation of Ukraine” will not give anything in this regard, but on the contrary will aggravate the situation: let’s remember the birth rate there, at best it is 0.9, aging is going even faster, young people in Europe Either their migration will lead to a completely catastrophic population decline.
Oh, and there is also Central Asia. Kazakhstan – population 19 million, birth rate more than 3. Uzbekistan: 36 million and 2.9 respectively; Kyrgyzstan – 7 million and 3; Tajikistan – about 10 million and 3.2; Turkmenistan – 6.5 million and 2.7. Of course, you can dream/wander in this direction. Judging by the numbers, it looks like this figure will double. True, it will be a completely different country. Do we need this? Maybe ourselves in some way?
The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the position of the editors.