New projections suggest the world population could peak around nine billion by 2050, a figure that remains below some of the most recent United Nations estimates. By that decade, population growth would begin to ease as nations implement broader development strategies. Today, the global population stands near eight billion people.
The study further argues that the peak could be closer to 8.5 billion in 2050 if a large-scale push in economic development, education, and health care occurs. These factors are known to stabilize demographic trends by improving livelihoods and reducing birth rates over time.
These fresh projections are part of the Earth4All initiative’s contribution to the Global Challenges Foundation. The researchers employed a new system dynamics model to explore two distinct paths through the current century.
In the first scenario, described as “Too little, too late,” the world continues along a path of economic growth similar to the last five decades, with many of the poorest regions gradually lifting themselves from extreme poverty.
Under this trajectory, the modeling estimates that the global population could rise to about 8.6 billion in 2050 and then fall to around 7 billion by 2100.
Earth’s overpopulation could slow — verified
In the second scenario, dubbed “The Giant Leap,” the researchers project a peak near 8.5 billion around 2040, followed by a decline to roughly 6 billion by the end of the century. Achieving this path would require unprecedented investments in poverty reduction and broad improvements in food security, energy security, and gender equality particularly through education and health programs. This approach envisions a generation where extreme poverty could disappear by 2060, with notable shifts in global demographic patterns.
Economic development is identified as a key driver for lower population growth, a point the authors emphasize as distinct from many large demographic forecasts that tend to understate the impact of rapid development in low-income countries.
“We know that rapid economic growth in low-income nations dramatically reduces fertility as girls gain access to education and women gain economic power along with better health care,” notes Per Espen Stoknes, head of Earth4All and director of the Center for Sustainability at the Norwegian Business School.
“Few elite models actually simulate population growth, economic development, and their interconnections in a single framework,” adds Beniamino Callegari, a member of the Earth4All modeling team. The analysis uses ten world regions, including sub-Saharan Africa, China, and the United States. Today, population growth remains higher in certain African countries such as Angola, Niger, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Nigeria, and in parts of Asia like Afghanistan. Callegari suggests that with sound development policies, these populations could peak sooner or later.
The team also examined the link between population trends and planetary boundaries based on Earth’s carrying capacity, seeking to understand how demographic changes interact with resource limits.
Population growth, prosperity, and planetary boundaries
The researchers argue that population size is not the sole driver of planetary stress. The most significant destabilizer is the high resource footprint of the wealthiest decile, whose consumption patterns exert heavy pressure on ecosystems. In their view, the central challenge is reducing the excess consumption of the global elite while ensuring that growing populations have access to essentials such as food, energy, and shelter.
“The fundamental problem of humanity lies in luxury consumption and carbon intensity, not merely in population numbers,” Randers of Earth4All explains. He notes that places with the fastest population growth often have the smallest per-capita environmental footprints relative to regions where population growth has long since slowed.
According to the projections, with current population levels and a more equitable distribution of resources, it could be possible to raise living standards worldwide without disrupting long-standing development trends. The analysis argues that ending extreme poverty and providing universal access to food, housing, energy, and other essentials would require a fairer allocation of resources across societies.
“A good life for all is achievable only if resource use by the wealthiest is reduced,” Randers concludes. The study emphasizes that achieving this future does not demand dramatic shifts in population alone but a reordering of how resources are consumed and shared.
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Note: the Earth4All findings reflect the team’s ongoing work on population, economy, and the environment, highlighting a path that blends rapid development with a renewed commitment to equity and sustainability.