In June, a rebel faction connected to the Wagner group opposed the Russian Ministry of Defense, relocating from Saint Petersburg to Minsk and establishing a stronger foothold in Belarus. They were granted a degree of freedom to operate outside Russia and appeared to receive a form of informal pardon. The group, notorious for its brutal tactics, faced increasing strain as neighboring countries reported heightened disturbances, mirroring patterns seen in Turkey, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland.
Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kamiński stated last Monday, after consultations with his counterparts, that they pressed the Lukashenko regime to expel the Wagner group from Belarus immediately. President Alexander Lukashenko, who helped mediate during the June Wagner revolt, offered the group his own territory to serve as a headquarters and even provided a former military base for operations, according to official Minsk channels.
Estimations from Minsk place the number of Wagner associates in Belarus at around 10,000. Although the leadership suffered losses after the plane crash that reportedly claimed the lives of Evgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, a trusted circle around the Russian president was expected to retain some influence. It is anticipated that this network will continue to guide the mercenaries and maintain a notable Russian presence across Africa, despite the upheaval back home.
ex-convicts and immigrants
A defining image of Wagner has long been the recruitment of prisoners in Russia. The Kremlin reportedly drew convicts into service in exchange for months of fighting in various theaters, including Ukraine, under Prigozhin’s leadership. Beyond amnesty, these recruits received salaries above the national average, regardless of the length of their sentences. Rights groups have cited estimates that as many as 50,000 detainees were recruited through this program at different times.
Poland remains concerned about this prisoner origin, noting that some released detainees who joined Wagner under the promise of combat in Ukraine were later accused of crimes against humanity and related offenses. This raises questions about the long-term impact of using convicts as a mercenary labor force and the broader consequences for regional stability.
Prigozhin’s press team released a video showing him with a group of Wagner mercenaries who had seemingly completed a six-month contract and were granted amnesty. The narration suggested that the skills once used for combat were no longer required and urged disciplined return to Russia, a moment captured and circulated at the time.
The situation extends beyond Russia’s borders. Poland condemned Belarusian use of foreign workers and immigrants as tools of destabilization around Warsaw, citing concerns about border pressure and security. Polish authorities reported that nearly 19,000 individuals from various countries attempted to enter Polish territory through Belarus this year, a figure significantly higher than the 16,000 recorded for the entire previous year.
In November 2021, the European Union faced a large influx of refugees who had promised safe passage through Minsk to reach Western Europe. The official estimates suggested that between 10,000 and 15,000 people from Iraq and Syria might cross into the EU via Belarus. The reality proved harsher: many found Belarusian hotels overbooked, others slept outdoors in freezing temperatures, and Poland maintained strict border controls to prevent crossing into European soil. The broader humanitarian and geopolitical dynamics of this migration episode underscored the risks associated with the use of irregular routes and coerced labor in regional conflicts.