The new year is underway, and many employers again instruct managers to push salary increases in the first January payroll. Across 2024, most workers can expect a rise in wages, though the spread by level varies: lower-level employees may see gains closer to those at mid-management, while higher ranks often land toward the upper end of the scale.
Ceinsa, a salary outlook from a consulting group, builds this picture from nearly 500 company salaries. The findings, reported by El Periódico de Cataluña on the Prensa Ibérica network, suggest wages will outpace the price level and help restore purchasing power after a period of inflation-driven erosion. If 2023 marked a transition with some salaries outpacing CPI, Ceinsa’s projection for 2024 is that most payrolls will again exceed price increases.
Anatomy of a different exit from the crisis: Wage inequality closed 2023 at a minimum
Funcas, another forecasting body, projects 2024 inflation averaging around 3.2 percent. It also predicts that all professional groups will preserve purchasing power on average, with ordinary workers having more room for improvement than managers.
Eight out of ten companies have either implemented or outlined 2024 pay raises. Ceinsa therefore anticipates close alignment between its forecasts and the year-end data. The expected pattern for essential workers suggests payrolls will rise by 3.9 percent in February, followed by 3.5 percent for middle management and 3.25 percent for managers. In this cycle, wages accelerate from above rather than from below, meaning ordinary workers could benefit most from the momentum.
Ceinsa findings align with other indicators, supporting the view that wage inequality is already narrowing. CaixaBank Research has updated its figures using hundreds of thousands of payrolls through 2023, showing a wage spread that has narrowed to historical lows. The most active increases are still concentrated among higher-wage earners, but the gap between the strongest gains and the weakest is tightening, aided in part by government policy that has raised the minimum wage over the past five years.
On average, Ceinsa expects salaries to rise about 3.5 percent in 2024, a touch below the 3.7 percent projection for 2023 and in line with other labor organizations. CaixaBank Research also reports a 3.5 percent payroll increase for 2023 when looking back at the full year.
More salary increases in the private sector than in the public sector
Official data from the Ministry of Labor show that collective agreements closed 2023 with an average wage increase of 3.5 percent. New contracts have been signed at higher increases, around 4.1 percent, surpassing the ranges negotiated through collective bargaining between employers and unions. The bilateral base increase for 2024 centers around 3 percent.
Ceinsa also notes that company size matters for who benefits most. Smaller firms with fewer than 100 employees are projected to see a 3.4 percent rise, mid-sized firms (100–500 employees) at 4.1 percent, firms with 500–1000 employees at 2.8 percent, and firms above 1,000 employees at about 3.7 percent. The private sector’s planned increases appear set to outpace earlier expectations, while the public sector faces governance-driven limits. The administration has committed to a 2 percent increase in public payrolls, with potential an additional 0.5 percent if CPI from 2022 to 2024 remains above prior gains. Civil servant salaries were frozen at the start of 2024, and the latest omnibus decision did not yet enact a retroactive reevaluation in the short term. The government indicates it aims to include any necessary adjustments in the upcoming state budgets, but negotiations and processing continue (Ceinsa, 2024).