Wage Talks and Social Peace: How Employers, Unions, and Elections Shape the Economic Landscape in North America and Europe

Employers and unions reach cautious gains as wage talks unfold across Spain and neighboring economies

Four days have passed since the first of May opened a new chapter in parliamentary life as unions and business leaders faced pressure to accept terms that would steer salary negotiations toward a “warm autumn” of stability. The executive chair of Foment del Treball, Josep Sánchez Llibre, underscored that a formal deal, if reached, would help secure social peace for three years. The forthcoming agreement, scheduled to be formalized by social agents within the week, appears designed to quell the early protests that began to surface last year. Similar patterns have emerged in other European Union states, where France, Portugal, and Germany have seen mass mobilizations ebb and flow in recent months. (Source: Labor and industry reports, current as of 2025.)

UGT’s general secretary, Pepe Álvarez, warned that wage gains of at least 10 percent by 2025 were on the table, even as the first attempt in 2022 faltered. Since then, social actors have mapped a three-year roadmap to lift salaries, while centers moderated demands and business leaders accepted a core constraint: pay should align, at least partially, with the consumer price index. The resulting accord, celebrated by opposition figures and government officials alike, aims to preserve social calm and reduce the friction that has swelled in some sectors. (Source: political and labor data, updated 2024.)

The year 2022 has often been labeled a difficult period for family budgets, yet the accompanying devaluation did not trigger broad street protests. Data from the Ministry of Labor show that 679 strikes involved 192,751 workers, roughly 19 percent of those called to participate. These figures do not reflect a crisis in prosperity; rather, they illustrate a temporary balance within a climate of improving economic indicators. Going back to pre-2012, one would have to trace a longer arc to see the unusual combination of low unemployment and relatively contained price pressures. (Source: Ministry of Labor strike statistics, 2024.)

Employers and unions have complied with wage agreements in only one year of the past 18

Beyond isolated industrial actions that drew significant media attention, such as the metal strike in Cádiz, the broader pattern shows fewer workdays lost overall. Labor data indicate a total of 709,099 days of work halted, a figure higher than 2020 and 2021, yet still below the levels reached in 2019. At the same time, inflation pressures have cooled, easing the cost of living for many households and reducing urgency for aggressive wage contests. (Source: Labor Party data, 2024.)

Social peace aligned with elections on the horizon

With the notable exception of a bipartisan alignment between CCOO and UGT, unions are unlikely to sign every initiative for social peace. This stance could provoke friction in sectors where the strongest centers retain leverage. Latest representative data show that around 80.3 percent of trade union delegates in Catalonia hold either a CCOO or UGT card, signaling a durable pro-union footprint in the region. (Source: Generalitat labor statistics, 2024.)

In the private sector, wage agreements have evolved over months, while a preliminary agreement is expected in the public sector. Civil servant salaries are projected to rise between 8.5 percent and 9.5 percent through 2024, contingent on variables such as GDP growth and inflation, limiting the scope for protests by public employees. This scenario of relative stability could be unsettled by the electoral calendar, as the year’s general elections approach and the possibility of a new government altering the rules to which unions have co-signed. The main opposition party has not yet clarified whether it would repeal or alter the labor and pension reforms if it gains power. (Source: government and party policy briefings, 2024–2025.)

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