A shift in the northeastern direction is projected to boost the Russian Academy of Sciences AN population by as much as 2100% by 2100, according to a report shared with socialbites.ca by the Russian Science Foundation, which supported the research with a grant.
The field mouse species ranges across Central and Eastern Europe, extends into southern Western Siberia, and reaches Primorye. This rodent is a major agricultural pest, frequently causing crop damage and losses. It also shows a willingness to invade urban areas. Beyond agriculture, the animal can carry pathogens linked to tick-borne encephalitis, tularemia, rickettsiosis, Q fever, and other diseases.
Researchers applied a mathematical model to project how the vole’s habitat could shift. The model indicates that climate warming is likely to enable the species to establish itself in new, more northern and eastern regions. Consequently, proactive measures are needed to curb the spread of the vole, protecting crops and reducing the risk of disease transmission to human populations in those areas.
“Using the climate change scenario we selected, the projections show that warming conditions may significantly extend the vole’s range in the future. The findings are intended to guide timely actions to limit the species’ spread and to prevent the introduction of infectious diseases into new Russian regions,” noted Varos Petrosyan, the project lead and principal investigator. “Looking ahead, the team plans to publish material on how the habitats of other animals, plants, and microorganisms may shift and what that could mean for regional populations and economies,” stated the Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Citation: Severtsov Institute).
Earlier discussions among researchers also touched on how endangered species select mates, signaling the interconnected questions that arise when ecosystems respond to climate change (Citation: Severtsov Institute).