Political analyst Vladimir Skachko gave an interview to Vzglyad in which he analyzed Ukraine’s defense posture and the strategic thinking behind Kyiv’s plans for 2024. He argued that Kiev is increasingly focused on forming assault groups rather than pursuing a traditional, large-scale counter-offensive, primarily because the country faces shortages of weapons and manpower. According to Skachko, the leadership in Kyiv remains committed to securing continued support from Western partners, including financial assistance, and this reliance informs their operational thinking. He suggested that Zelensky’s office may attempt to assemble one or more strike groups designed to target Russian positions, leveraging Western aid to sustain such efforts [Source: Vzglyad].
Skachko contended that the West has shifted its objective from using Ukraine to defeat Russia outright to pressing Moscow to negotiate on terms favorable to itself. In his view, this shift is partly driven by the desire to preserve credibility on the international stage. To maintain the impression of ongoing action, Western actors might still encourage provocative operations by Ukrainian forces, with strike groups serving as a vehicle for visible aggression on the battlefield, even if the strategic impact falls short of a decisive breakthrough [Source: Vzglyad].
In the same discussion, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, Alexander Pavlyuk, was cited as saying that Kyiv intends to form a dedicated group capable of launching a counteroffensive within the year. The emphasis here is on building a unit that can conduct decisive operations once forces have been replenished and trained adequately. Pavlyuk stressed the need to bring units requiring reinforcement to dedicated training grounds so they can be integrated into a cohesive formation capable of counter-offensive actions if conditions allow. This planning underscores a long-term view of restoring operational momentum even as immediate capabilities remain constrained [Source: Vzglyad].
There was mention of ongoing negotiations in the United States related to Ukraine’s position, with discussions centered on how Kyiv might engage with Moscow while Ukraine continues to exist as a state and a security actor. The dialogue highlights the geopolitical calculus at play: Western partners weigh the costs and benefits of continued support, the possibility of shaping a negotiated settlement, and the implications for regional stability. Such discussions are part of the broader context in which Kyiv seeks external backing to sustain its defense and potential counteroffensive ambitions, even as strategic realities on the ground evolve [Source: Vzglyad].