boredom problem
The economist Louis Vicente Leon, president of Datanálisis, notes that the current popularity of Private Conde del Guácharo seems to reflect a sense of public satiation. He argues that a portion of society is looking for something new, a change that breaks with what has been offered in recent years. Still, he cautions that with dozens of candidates likely to enter the primaries, it is too early to expect this momentum to endure through the campaign. If Rausseo or Machado maintain traction, the political system could face new pressures from outside forces that historically influenced Venezuelan elections.
Although the surge in popularity among outsiders has not yet translated into a clear push to vote in primaries or the presidency, it remains a natural possibility and could become a genuine risk to the traditional political order.
— Luis Vicente Leon
Struggles
The country experienced modest economic growth after a long downturn, with a notable rebound in 2022 as the economy stabilized and some dollarized activity resumed in key sectors. The government framed this as the end of the crisis, even as analysts warned against overconfidence given tighter sanctions from the United States and ongoing tensions between the government and opposition. The internal dynamics in Mexico and broader regional negotiation efforts were expected to continue shaping the pace of change ahead of the next elections.
According to early agreements among parties, Venezuela could see funds redirected from seized assets dating back to 2019 to meet pressing social needs under international oversight. Pace matters, since slower delivery would test the patience of vulnerable voters who previously supported the ruling bloc. The government, by contrast, has relied on oil industry deals with international partners, including approvals from major Western capitals.
Against this backdrop, the primary elections were launched with the aim of showing that the opposition, once fragmented and unstable for years, can unite behind a leading figure and channel that unity into a credible campaign. Political analysts suggested this moment could rekindle public enthusiasm for politics, but warned that the path to a cohesive opposition slate would still require time and negotiation. The anti-madurismo sentiment has an advantage that has not been fully exploited since the 2015 parliamentary breakthroughs, though turning that advantage into durable momentum is not straightforward.
[Citation: Piero Trepiccione, political scientist; Luis Vicente Leon, economist and president of Datanálisis]