“Cambio” or “continuity.” The second round this Sunday in Uruguay will be defined by those ideas distilled into a single word. Professor Yamandú Orsi wants the small South American country to turn the page with the help, once again, of the center-left Frente Amplio. Álvaro Delgado, from the governing National Party, calls on voters to preserve the path opened by the current center-right president, Luis Lacalle Pou. The candidates arrive at the runoff in a situation close to a technical tie, according to major polls. High uncertainty and parity, according to El Observador, frame the mood. The suspense does not lack civility; even with an open finish, Uruguayans generally avoid confrontations that could spark violence. (Source: El Observador)
Orsi won the first round clearly in late October with about 44 percent of the vote. Delgado, Lacalle Pou’s preferred successor, trailed by roughly 17 points. Since the return to democracy in the mid 1980s, the Frente Amplio has often led the first round but then faced the blancos and the traditional Colorado faction. They tend to unite to slow the advance of the frentamplistas toward the executive, though they have not always succeeded, as the episodes of 2004, 2010 and 2014 show. This time Delgado also benefits from the backing of a minor party, the Constitutionalists. That support appears to have balanced the contest enough that, according to the polling firm Cifra, the winner on Sunday will only be known when all ballots are counted. The small share of undecided voters could once again prove decisive. (Source: Cifra)
But it isn’t just those voters. Across the Rio de la Plata, in Argentina, about 111,000 Uruguayans live. They represent roughly 3 percent of the electoral roll, and Orsi and Delgado need those ballots as surely as water. The so‑called Buquebus vote, named after the ferry service that crosses the river daily at varying times, gains crucial importance in this scenario. The Frente Amplio and the Blancos have subsidized ferry tickets to secure support at the polls. The left hopes for around 18,000 adherents, well more than the rival. (Source: Campaign observers)
Shared Moderation
Taken at their word, Orsi, who has Carolina Cosse as vice president, and Delgado sought during the campaign to stay true to their traditions. While the ideas of “change” and “continuity” separate them, a single word has echoed in rallies and media appearances: project. Both the Frente Amplio and the Blancos insist they have a clear program for a country that, according to current forecasts, will grow around 3.2 percent this year and where poverty remains among the region’s lower ranks, about 9.1 percent. A drift or a steadier line under Lacalle Pou is unlikely to bring surprises. If anything unites Orsi and Delgado, it is the belief that reforms should move cautiously, not abruptly. For that reason, their rivals also stress the notion of certainty. (Source: Economic Briefings)
The two sides express two forms of coalitions in practice. The Frente Amplio, born in 1971 and central to the restoration of democracy, is a left‑wing alliance that dutifully housed the Communist Party, remnants of the Tupamaros, along with socialists and Christian democrats. The experiment of living together across such a spectrum has few precedents in Latin America. Delgado, meanwhile, represents a coalition of convenience, rallying forces that fear Orsi’s ascent. “We do not merely represent parties today,” said the official candidate. Delgado also stressed that convergence should be more than a reflex against the FA. “We did not just join to win; we joined to govern.” (Source: Political analysis notes)
The Mujica Case
The runoff has also seen greater prominence given to former president Pepe Mujica, who at 89 announced he had overcome esophageal cancer. In October he appeared to back Orsi with a voice that trembled. In recent hours Mujica unexpectedly found himself at the center of attention. Known for his ascetic economy and frugal life on Montevideo’s outskirts, Mujica, the Uruguayan icon of anti‑consumerism, criticized Lacalle Pou for spending $50,000 on a motorcycle and two trucks perceived as unnecessary, signals of indifference to the least fortunate in the country. “I put more than half my salary into the Juntos plan, and I have receipts. I gave more than half a million dollars,” he recalled from his years in office. He also labeled the spendthrift leaders as “miserable” and called them the country’s fathers. He accused the present government of leaving a substantial social debt. (Source: Mujica interview)
Amid the stir caused by talk of a motorcycle and two trucks, Mujica later stepped back. “I spoke out of heat and I apologize to the Uruguayan people. Not for the content I endorse, but for the manner,” he said. The issue of tone appears especially relevant in a country with 3.4 million eligible voters. (Source: Mujica clarification)