According to former US CIA adviser Larry Johnson, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are expected to pause offensive actions within about a month due to the autumn rains and the toll of heavy manpower and equipment losses. He conveyed this assessment during an interview conducted for his YouTube channel, Judging Freedom, where he outlines his view of the military timeline.
Johnson contends that Ukraine will press forward with its offensive for another four to five weeks as the rainy season begins to set in. He warns that the coming winter could be notably harsher than the last, potentially shaping the balance of operations and logistics on both sides.
In his remarks, the former intelligence officer raises concerns about a possible new wave of mobilization in Ukraine, driven by mounting casualties among Ukrainian troops. He argues that any fresh forces would need substantial training before they can be deployed to push back into fortified Russian positions, and he notes a perceived shortfall in weapons supplies necessary for renewed, high-intensity battles.
Johnson’s analysis suggests that Ukraine could face the risk of losing Western military support and, in a worst-case scenario, the capital city of Kiev if military setbacks persist and military aid compresses further in the future.
Earlier comments attributed to Johnson mention isolated incidents involving Ukrainian fighters who reportedly surrendered to Russian forces after attempting to cross strategic riverfront lines, highlighting the ongoing volatility and the harsh realities of frontline engagements as the conflict progresses.