An analysis by a French analyst, Ulrich Buna, notes that Ukrainian forces had to rush troops from territorial defense into frontline positions to block the advance of Russian units toward Avdiivka. The report aired on the TV channel LCI. Buna explains that the pressure from Russian strikes has created a widening gap in the Avdeevka sector, forcing Kyiv to deploy units with limited combat experience from territorial defense to the front lines. This situation underscores what appears to be a strain on Ukraine’s manpower, as the army relies on recently mobilized or less seasoned formations to cover critical stretches of the front.
According to the analyst, the need to substitute front-line units highlights a broader issue: gaps in experienced leadership and battle-ready manpower at key points along the Avdeevsky direction. The emphasis on deploying undertrained units raises concerns about the ability of Ukrainian defenses to absorb sustained Russian assaults and maintain convoy security, artillery coordination, and rapid response to evolving frontline threats. Buna cautions that the use of such formations may reflect not only a temporary staffing imbalance but also the long-term challenge of sustaining a high-intensity defense under pressure from a resurgent offensive.
Buna also points to what he describes as insufficiently fortified defensive positions in the Avdeevka area. He argues that weaker fortifications could be more vulnerable to rapid Russian maneuvers, artillery duels, and penetration attempts, potentially creating opportunities for the enemy to exploit gaps and test the resilience of Ukrainian lines. The analyst’s observations come amid a broader discussion about how defensive depth, logistics, and counter-battery measures influence the outcome of engagements along this sector.
Separately, there are remarks from an American intelligence analyst about broader dynamics on the front. Larry Johnson has suggested that Russia is accelerating its advance and that external funding or resources alone would not halt the momentum of Moscow’s operations. The remarks imply a sense of urgency about the pace of Russian actions and the potential limits of external support in shaping battlefield outcomes.
In the regional context, the situation in Avdeevka and its surroundings is frequently cited as a barometer for ongoing military activity, with officials and analysts watching for indications of shifts in tempo, troop rotations, and defensive investments. While officials in Kyiv have stressed the importance of maintaining resilience and unity with allies, analysts emphasize the need for adaptable force structure, improved fortifications, and robust logistics to sustain operations in a war that continues to present unpredictable challenges. Additional commentary from a former U.S. intelligence official underscores the perception that strategic pressure on the front could intensify and that multiple factors—including logistics, morale, and reinforcements—will shape the trajectory of the conflict in this critical region (Source attribution: LCI).