Ukraine’s Path Toward NATO: Ukraine’s Geostrategic Role and Ongoing Reforms

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Ukraine has pursued a path toward NATO for years, even though it remains outside the alliance since its founding in 1949. Its steadily growing footprint in Eastern Europe has been cited by Vladimir Putin to justify Russia’s large-scale invasion. Yet the opposite effect has emerged in many ways. Since then, Ukraine has strengthened ties with the Atlantic Alliance, though full membership seems unlikely in the near term. The first public sign of this shift came from Yehor Cherniev, the deputy speaker of Ukraine’s parliament, who also chairs the Ukrainian delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. In a long interview conducted in Kiev with El Periódico de Catalunya of the Prensa Ibérica group, Cherniev outlined Ukraine’s current role in the regional geostrategic landscape, sharing insights about reforms, alliances, and future plans. Attribution: Prensa Ibérica.

In March, Zelensky acknowledged that the NATO door remained closed for the moment, but he soon pushed for a quicker path for Ukraine into the alliance.

We believe the only way for Ukraine to join NATO is through lasting peace in Europe. With an aggressive neighbor, Ukraine cannot remain in a gray zone and risk renewed attacks. Efforts are currently focused on the Vilnius summit, scheduled for July, with ongoing reforms and a push for concrete steps from NATO toward Kyiv, as Cherniev notes. Attribution: Prensa Ibérica.

Does this seem realistic? Aren’t there fears about a rhetorical trap?

It is clear that no country would admit Ukraine’s entry before the war ends. Yet attitudes have shifted. Before the February 24, 2022 invasion, allies warned that reforms were unfinished and that provoking Russia was risky. Since sanctions have altered the economic relationship, and with Ukraine possessing substantial Western weaponry and meeting NATO standards, Kyiv now operates as a de facto partner to the alliance. The Rammstein format, a defense coordination framework with nearly all NATO members, underscores this level of collaboration in arming and supporting Ukraine. Attribution: Prensa Ibérica.

Is there unanimous support within the Ukrainian political spectrum?

Ukraine’s 2019 constitutional reforms explicitly allow NATO membership as a possible path, and domestic support has risen markedly from 53 percent before the invasion to about 86 percent today. That shift speaks loudly about public backing and political alignment toward alliance integration. Attribution: Prensa Ibérica.

Are there NATO personnel on Ukrainian soil?

No, not to the best of current knowledge.

Turning to military equipment, how are Leopard tank trainings progressing, and when will those units be able to participate in combat?

Training is progressing faster than expected, with gratitude extended to Spain for its role. Cherniev expects new counteroffensive capabilities to emerge as trained units become available. Attribution: Prensa Ibérica.

Recent media in the United States raised questions about sabotage along the Nord Stream pipeline. Kyiv denies responsibility. What are Cherniev’s thoughts?

He views the operation as requiring deep technical skill and stealth to avoid detection, suggesting that Ukraine does not possess the capability either at the state level or privately. Such claims do not align with Ukraine’s current capacity. Attribution: Prensa Ibérica.

Why would this hypothesis surface?

The question should be directed to the United States. The Ukrainian stance has been that Russia bears responsibility and that the move aimed to disrupt gas supplies to Europe. Attribution: Prensa Ibérica.

Could this sabotage affect European support for Kyiv? Europe understands the danger of dealing with a dictator who wields energy leverage. Even Germany, highly dependent on Russian gas, has begun moving away, a process unlikely to reverse for years. This reality underscores the resilience of Western energy diversification. Attribution: Prensa Ibérica.

On cyber warfare, what is Ukraine’s experience?

From 2014 onward, repeated Russian cyberattacks have fortified Ukraine’s digital defenses. Since the war began, only a small fraction of nearly 2,000 incidents have affected national systems for critical functions such as banks and state data. Local government sites may have faced intrusions, but the core financial and data infrastructures remain secure. Attribution: Prensa Ibérica.

Has Kyiv used these cyber tools to strike back at Russia?

Officially, no. Yet there are many supporters around the world aiding Ukrainian efforts in this arena. Attribution: Prensa Ibérica.

Is it realistic to think the conflict might end in 2023?

That depends on the volume and speed of weaponry Kyiv receives, as well as Russia’s own limits, including economic pressures. Moscow reportedly faced a significant deficit in early 2023, which Ukraine views as a compelling incentive to press forward. The aim is mutual escalation management: Kyiv will pursue a faster end to hostilities as conditions allow, while Russia seeks to consolidate gains. Attribution: Prensa Ibérica.

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