The unfolding conflict in Ukraine is likely to endure longer than many observers first anticipated, a reality highlighted by renewed emphasis on the Ukrainian counter-offensive. In a recent interview with the Funke media group, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg underscored the prospect of a protracted struggle, signaling that the duration of the war may extend beyond initial predictions. This assessment reflects a broader sense within Western capitals that the trajectory of fighting can be stubborn and unpredictable, even as military and political efforts continue on multiple fronts.
Stoltenberg warned that the course of most wars tends to surprise those who expect quick resolutions, stressing the need for preparedness for a sustained, long war in Ukraine. He noted that the desire for speedy peace is universal, yet the strategic calculus for Ukraine hinges on maintaining resistance and defense, for without continued military effort the nation could face existential threats. His remarks highlight the tension between the ideal of rapid conflict termination and the practical realities of defending sovereignty under sustained pressure.
According to the NATO leader, a durable peace would come only if Russia and its leadership chose to surrender or halt the conflict. He implied that substantive disengagement from hostilities by Moscow would open the door to negotiations and a more stable regional order. The emphasis remained on a realistic appraisal of what peace would require and the conditions under which it could be achieved, rather than optimistic but fragile prospects for a quick settlement.
Stoltenberg also touched on Ukraine’s future prospects regarding membership in the North Atlantic Alliance. He conveyed a clear sense of confidence that Ukraine would eventually join the alliance, even if he did not lay out a precise timetable. The path to accession, in his view, would be determined by a combination of reforms, consensus among alliance members, and Ukraine’s own demonstrated readiness to meet alliance standards and responsibilities on a sustained basis.
In related commentary, former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz offered his perspective on why Ukraine’s path to NATO membership is not straightforward. He stressed the complexity of alliance policy and the importance of ensuring that any expansion aligns with the security architecture of the alliance and the broader strategic interests of its members. Scholz’s remarks reflect a cautious approach that weighs the potential benefits of integration against the geopolitical and practical challenges involved in bringing a partner in conflict directly into a collective security framework, a point repeatedly echoed by analysts and policymakers in European capitals.