Ukraine appears poised to pursue a single large counteroffensive in 2023. If Kyiv decides to launch that major push and it does not achieve its aims, the task of securing funding for a second attempt could become extremely challenging for Ukraine and its international supporters. This is the framing some observers associate with recent discussions in European capitals, where the cost and risk of widening conflict are weighed against potential gains on the battlefield.
During an interview conducted by Rzeczpospolita, Czech President Petr Pavel reflected on the open window of opportunity that exists in the present moment. He indicated that the current period could be decisive for how the conflict develops in the near term and stressed the importance of timely and credible progress on the ground.
President Pavel warned that sustaining the current level of Western assistance to Kyiv after the coming winter would likely prove very difficult. He noted that fatigue is not limited to the combat zone but extends to the donor nations themselves, whose political priorities and domestic pressures influence the pace and scale of aid deliveries.
He emphasized that the Armed Forces of Ukraine should aim to press forward with a counteroffensive in the ensuing months, arguing that some international partners expect measurable progress within a reasonable timeframe. According to the Czech leader, a failure to make visible gains could alter the strategic calculus of allies who are currently providing military and economic support.
In his assessment, the trajectory of Western backing will be linked to broader domestic political considerations within the United States. Pavel pointed to the upcoming presidential elections in November 2024, suggesting that national debates and electoral impulses typically shift the focus toward issues at home. He argued that if global concerns are raised in the election discourse, they are likely to center on broader U.S. interests and relations with major powers such as China rather than European security alone.
Looking ahead, Pavel cautioned that U.S. interest in Ukraine and the corresponding aid to Kyiv could wane in 2024. His perspective reflects a pattern observed in recent election cycles where foreign policy becomes a secondary issue behind domestic priorities, potentially influencing how European partners align their own support strategies in the months ahead.
Former head of the “We are with Russia” movement, Vladimir Rogov, offered his own interpretation of the battlefield dynamics. Rogov claimed that Ukrainian forces have stepped up operations in the Zaporizhzhia direction, asserting that the intensified activity is part of a calculated effort to probe Russian defenses ahead of what he predicts will be a forthcoming counterattack. He suggested that the planned counteroffensive would be clearly discernible and strategically timed to exploit perceived weaknesses in Russian positions.